Estimation of the risk of death during the first year after acute myocardial infarction from systolic time intervals during the first week.

B J Northover

Leicester Royal Infirmary, Coronary Care Unit.

Patients who survived for the first seven days after acute myocardial infarction were followed up for a further 51 weeks. During these 51 weeks there were 123 deaths and 477 eventual survivors. Approximately half of the deaths occurred during the first 3 weeks of follow up. The deaths were predicted with 75% sensitivity and 73% specificity by a discriminant analysis based upon six variables seen during the first 7 days; predictions of death and survival were 55% and 92% accurate respectively. These six variables were, in ascending order of prognostic importance, the occurrence of bundle branch blocks, the administration of a diuretic, the age of the patient, the presence of diabetes mellitus, a previous myocardial infarction, and the ratio of the measured left ventricular pre-ejection and ejection periods. Many other monitored variables, although univariately associated with death, contributed nothing further to the multivariate assessment of mortality risk.

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Estimation of the risk of death after acute myocardial infarction from systolic time intervals.

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Heart 1990 64: 227. [PDF]

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