Seasonal variations in out of hospital cardiopulmonary arrest
J P Pella, J Sirelb, A K Marsdenc, S M Cobbeb
a Department of Public
Health Medicine, Greater Glasgow Health Board, Dalian House, 350 St
Vincents Street, Glasgow G3 8YU, UK, b Department of Medical Cardiology, Glasgow Royal
Infirmary, Glasgow, UK, c Scottish Ambulance Service, Edinburgh, UK
Correspondence to: Dr Pell email: jill.pell{at}glasgow-hb.scot.nhs.uk
Accepted for publication 30 July 1999
OBJECTIVE
To
determine whether there are seasonal variations in survival following
out of hospital cardiopulmonary arrest.
DESIGN
Prospective
cohort study using the Heartstart (Scotland) database.
SETTING
All of Scotland.
PATIENTS
10 890
people who suffered out of hospital cardiopulmonary arrest in the
summer or winter between December 1988 and August 1997 inclusive.
INTERVENTION
Univariate
comparisons of 5406 arrests occurring in summer with 5484 in winter, in
terms of patient characteristics, management, and survival using
2 and Mann-Whitney U tests. Multivariate analysis of the
association between season and survival following adjustment for case mix.
MAIN OUTCOMES
MEASURES
Survival to discharge from hospital,
survival pre-admission, in-hospital survival.
RESULTS
Only 6% of
people who arrested in winter survived to discharge, compared to 8% of
those who arrested in summer (odds ratio 0.77, p < 0.001). People
who arrested in winter had a poorer risk profile in that they were
older, more likely to arrest at home, less likely to have a witness,
and less likely to receive defibrillation. However, after adjustment
for case mix, people who arrested in winter were still 19% less likely
to survive compared to those who arrested in summer. Deaths
pre-admission were significantly higher in winter (odds ratio 1.18, p < 0.05) but in-hospital deaths were not.
CONCLUSIONS
People who
suffer cardiopulmonary arrest in winter have a significantly lower
likelihood of surviving. This is, in part, caused by the higher
frequency of a number of recognised risk factors. However, their
prognosis remains poorer even after adjustment for these factors.
Keywords: cardiopulmonary arrest; cardiopulmonary resuscitation; seasonal variations; ischaemic heart disease
© 1999 by Heart
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