© 2003 by BMJ Publishing Group & British Cardiac Society
EDITORIAL
Estimating prognosis in heart failure: time for a better approach
Correspondence to:
Correspondence to:
Professor Martin R Cowie, Cardiac Medicine, National Heart & Lung Institute, London SW3 6LY, UK;
m.cowie@imperial.ac.uk
More research is needed into estimating risk in heart failure and in communicating prognostic information to patients
Keywords: heart failure; risk prediction
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
Estimating prognosis is endorsed by recent clinical guidelines as a key element of the management of heart failure.1,2 How this is to be done is less clear. Heart failure follows a variable clinical course, and as many as one half of patients will die suddenly rather than dying of progressive heart failure.3 The predictability of death may therefore be lower than in other conditions. The challenge of identifying clinical variables consistently associated with mortality has been summarised by Cowburn and colleagues.4 Many of the published studies are small, and include highly selected patient populations, with different variables recorded in each dataset. Differences in the way measurements are madefor example, in the assessment of left ventricular systolic functionand the close correlation between many variables add further complexity. Also, it should not be assumed that the same variables will be associated with mortality in the early phases of heart failure as well
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