FEATURED EDITORIAL
Cardiovascular risk prediction: are we there yet?
Correspondence to:
Professor R Jackson, Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population Health, Tamaki Campus, Faculty of Medical and Health Sciences, University of Auckland, 100 Morrin Rd, Glen Innes, Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand; rt.jackson@auckland.ac.nz
| The first 150 words of the full text of this article appear below. |
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It has been a long journey getting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction recognised as relevant to clinical decision-making. The Framingham Heart Study investigators put CVD risk prediction on the map over 30 years ago with their Framingham CVD risk scores, and Bill Kannel’s seminal 1976 paper advising clinicians to inform their risk management decisions using predicted CVD risk rather than individual risk factor levels has stood the test of time.1 There is now a wealth of supporting evidence that major CVD risk factors like blood pressure or blood lipid levels are not only individually poor predictors of a patient’s CVD risk but also of a patient’s potential to benefit from treatment, when compared with multifactor CVD risk prediction estimates.2 Disappointingly, estimating CVD risk remains the exception rather than the rule in routine clinical practice.3 As a result, CVD risk factor management is poorly targeted4 because risk prediction, like
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