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- AF, atrial fibrillation
- CI, confidence interval
- LVH, left ventricular hypertrophy
- ROC, receiver operating characteristic
- SVT, supraventricular tachycardia
Prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) is usually based on anatomical and functional characterisation of the atrial substrate, such as left atrial diameter, ejection fraction, and P wave duration.1 In this respect, triggers such as atrial extrasystoles are often neglected.2 Atrial extrasystoles may occur during or shortly after exercise as a result of acute atrial stretch, especially in patients with left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and diastolic dysfunction. As LVH may induce the atrial substrate and atrial extrasystoles are the trigger for AF, we reasoned that these exercise induced atrial extrasystoles may predict AF in patients with LVH.
Patients with LVH (interventricular septal diameter ⩾ 11 mm) and ejection fraction ⩾ 55% who underwent an exercise test between 1994 and 2004 were studied. Patients with prior AF or flutter or pacemaker rhythm, patients without at least one follow up ECG, and those with an incomplete exercise test were excluded. Of 864 screened patients 258 were selected.
The exercise tests (Case Exercise Testing System; GE Medical Systems, Milwaukee, USA) were performed according to standard protocols.3 Each test was manually reviewed for atrial extrasystoles and supraventricular tachycardia (SVT; three or more consecutive supraventricular extrasystoles).
Follow up ECG data were retrieved from an electronic storage system containing all ECGs recorded in our institution since 1994. The follow up period lasted from the date of the exercise test …