Table 3 Cost-effectiveness of RFCA for alternative scenarios (for CHADS2 = 1)
| Lifetime analysis | 5-year analysis | |||||
| ICER (£) | Probability CE at £20 000 | Probability CE at £30 000 | ICER (£) | Probability CE at £20 000 | Probability CE at £30 000 | |
| Source of effectiveness evidence | ||||||
| RCTs and worldwide survey9 | 7814 | 0.988 | 1.000 | 25 623 | 0.156 | 0.701 |
| RCTs and case-series | 7851 | 0.975 | 0.999 | 25 573 | 0.184 | 0.634 |
| Prognostic impact of NSR | ||||||
| Prognosis for NSR and AF equivalent | 9327 | 0.977 | 0.996 | 37 997 | 0.027 | 0.204 |
| Utilities for health states | ||||||
| No differential impact by treatment | 12 840 | 0.682 | 0.963 | 32 524 | 0.008 | 0.399 |
| Annual probability of reversion back to AF after RFCA | ||||||
| (a) 5% | 7999 | 0.982 | 0.999 | 26 969 | 0.132 | 0.618 |
| (b) 10% | 8401 | 0.966 | 0.970 | 29 910 | 0.075 | 0.441 |
| (c) 15% | 8703 | 0.954 | 0.944 | 32 035 | 0.060 | 0.374 |
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AF, atrial fibrillation; CE, cost-effectiveness; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; NSR, normal sinus rhythm; QALY, quality-adjusted life year; RCT, randomised controlled trials; RFCA, radiofrequency catheter ablation.
