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Identifying community based chronic heart failure patients in the last year of life: a comparison of the Gold Standards Framework Prognostic Indicator Guide and the Seattle Heart Failure Model
  1. Kristin Haga2,
  2. Scott Murray2,
  3. Janet Reid1,
  4. Andrea Ness1,
  5. Maureen O'Donnell1,
  6. Diane Yellowlees1,
  7. Martin A Denvir1
  1. 1Edinburgh Heart Centre, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
  2. 2Primary Palliative Care Research Group, Centre for Population Health Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
  1. Correspondence to Dr Martin Denvir Edinburgh Heart Centre, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh Edinburgh, UK mdenvir{at}staffmail.ed.ac.uk

Abstract

Objective To assess the clinical utility of the Gold Standards Framework Prognostic Indicator Guide (GSF) and the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHF) to identify patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) in the last year of life.

Design, setting and patients An observational cohort study of 138 community based ambulatory patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III and IV CHF managed by a specialist heart failure nursing team.

Main outcome measures 12 month mortality, and sensitivity and specificity of GSF and SHF.

Results 138 CHF patients with NYHA class III and IV symptoms were identified from a population of 368 ambulatory CHF patients. 119 (86%) met GSF criteria for end of life care. The SHF model identified six (4.3%) patients with a predicted life expectancy of 1 year or less. At the 12 month follow-up, 43 (31%) patients had died. The sensitivity and specificity for GSF and SHF in predicting death were 83% and 22%, and 12% and 99%, respectively. Receiver operator characteristic analysis of SHF revealed a C index of 0.68±0.05 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.77). Chronic kidney disease (serum creatinine ≥140 μmol/l) was a strong univariate predictor of 12 month mortality, with a sensitivity of 56% and specificity of 72%.

Conclusions Neither the GSF nor the SHF accurately predicted which patients were in the last year of life. The poor prognostic ability of these models highlights one of the barriers to providing timely palliative care in CHF.

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Footnotes

  • See Editorial, p 523

  • Linked article 301753.

  • Funding KH was partially funded by a bursary from the University of Edinburgh.

  • Competing interests None.

  • Ethics approval The study was granted ‘audit’ status by a member of the South East Scotland Research Ethics Committee and was therefore not considered to require full ethical review.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

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