Original articleAdult cardiacPrediction of Survival After Coronary Revascularization: Modeling Short-Term, Mid-Term, and Long-Term Survival
Section snippets
Patients
The patient cohort used for this study was drawn from the PCI and CABG registries of the NNECDSG, a voluntary research consortium composed of clinicians, research scientists, and hospital administrators at the institutions in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. The intent of this group is to foster continuous improvement in the quality of care of patients with cardiovascular disease in northern New England [1, 2]. Hospital-based data on all PCIs and CABGs in the region are prospectively
Characteristics of Patients
Between 1987 and 2001, 47,917 unique patients underwent CABG in northern New England, of whom 15,245 had complete information for all risk factors except possibly CR and BMI (which were imputed) and became the study cohort. As shown in Table 1, the mean age in this group was 66, 27% were female, 30% had DM, 14% had a history of CHF, 50% had 3-VD, 5.5% underwent emergency procedures, and 76% had CABG in 1998 through 2001. From 1988 to 2001, 47,589 patients were added to the PCI registry, of whom
Comment
We have developed rules for predicting short-term, mid-term, and long-term survival in patients undergoing CABG and patients undergoing PCI. The rules were developed using models that are sensitive to departures from the usual assumptions (ie, proportionality of hazards and log-linear continuous effects). These rules are well calibrated and discriminate well overall (C indices of 77% to 83%, corrected for overfitting bias) and for a range of patient subtypes.
A variety of models have been
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