Table 4

Summary of one way sensitivity analysis

Variable (valve type)	Baseline estimate	Plausible range*		Event-free life expectancy (years)†		Age crossover point‡
Variable (valve type)	Baseline estimate	Favourable	Unfavourable	Favourable	Unfavourable	Favourable	Unfavourable
*The plausible range was defined by increasing or decreasing the baseline estimates for thromboembolism, haemorrhage, and endocarditis by 25%. For SVD, the median time to SVD was varied by 10%.
†The event-free life expectancy (EFLE) calculated by the model was 8.9 years for a 60 year old man with baseline estimates.
‡The age crossover point between mechanical valves and bioprostheses was 60 years for EFLE at baseline analysis.
§Data from another study⁵ were used to model haemorrhage in mechanical valves. The baseline risk was varied for this analysis.
bio, bioprosthesis; mech, mechanical valve; SVD, structural valvar deterioration.
Thromboembolism (mech)	1.6	1.2	2	9.1	8.6	62	58
Thromboembolism (bio)	1.3	1	1.6	9.1	8.7	59	61
Haemorrhage (mech)§	1.3	1	1.7	9.2	8.5	62	58
Endocarditis (mech)	0.7	0.5	0.9	9	8.7	61	59
SVD (bio)	16 years	17.6 years	14.4 years	9.2	8.5	57	63