Table 2

Model coefficients and HRs

	Model coefficient	LRT statistic	p Value	HR (95% CI)
Model A, SMART risk score
Age in years	−0.0850	62.8*	<0.01*	1.86 (1.59 to 2.19)*
Age in years squared	0.0011
Male sex	0.1561	2.2	0.14	1.19 (0.94 to 1.51)
Diabetes mellitus	0.2232	5.3	0.02	1.30 (1.05 to 1.63)
Current smoking	0.2617	7.6	<0.01	1.33 (1.09 to 1.62)
Systolic blood pressure (per 10 mm Hg)	0.0043	4.1	0.04	1.04 (1.00 to 1.09)
Total cholesterol (mmol/l)	0.0959	5.6	0.02	1.11 (1.02 to 1.20)
HDL-cholesterol (mmol/l)	−0.4256	9.8	<0.01	0.63 (0.47 to 0.85)
hs-CRP (mg/dl) log transformed	0.1394	9.8	<0.01	1.24 (1.08 to 1.41)*
eGFR (ml/min/1.73 m²)	−0.0532	21.0*	<0.01	0.87 (0.76 to 0.98)*
eGFR squared	0.0003
Years since first vascular event	0.0229	7.4	<0.01	1.02 (1.01 to 1.03)
History of cerebrovascular disease	0.4058	17.4	<0.01	1.65 (1.31 to 2.08)
History of coronary artery disease	0.1401	3.9	0.05	1.28 (1.00 to 1.62)
History of abdominal aortic aneurysm	0.5578	21.2	<0.01	1.93 (1.48 to 2.51)
History of peripheral arterial disease	0.2832	9.0	<0.01	1.44 (1.14 to 1.81)
Model B, carotid ultrasound
Age in years	−0.1243	77.7*	<0.01*	1.84 (1.59 to 2.13)*
Age in years squared	0.0014
Male sex	0.2051	4.9	0.03	1.27 (1.02 to 1.58)
Carotid intima-media thickness (mm)	0.8398	26.9	<0.01	2.49 (1.79 to 3.47)
Carotid artery stenosis >50%	0.4063	16.2	<0.01	1.53 (1.25 to 1.88)
Model C, SMART risk score PLUS
Age in years	−0.1031	40.7*	<0.01*	1.64 (1.38 to 1.94)*
Age in years squared	0.0011
Male sex	0.1194	1.3	0.26	1.14 (0.90 to 1.45)
Diabetes mellitus	0.1991	4.4	0.04	1.27 (1.02 to 1.59)
Current smoking	0.2213	5.5	0.02	1.27 (1.04 to 1.56)
Systolic blood pressure (per 10 mm Hg)	0.0026	1.3	0.25	1.03 (0.98 to 1.07)
Total cholesterol (mmol/l)	0.0898	4.9	0.03	1.10 (1.01 to 1.20)
HDL-cholesterol (mmol/l)	−0.4002	8.5	<0.01	0.65 (0.48 to 0.87)
hs-CRP (mg/dl) log transformed	0.1272	7.9	<0.01	1.21 (1.06 to 1.39)*
eGFR (ml/min/1.73 m²)	−0.0509	18.9*	<0.01*	0.87 (0.77 to 0.99)*
eGFR squared	0.0003
Years since first vascular event	0.0228	7.2	<0.01	1.02 (1.01 to 1.03)
History of cerebrovascular disease	0.2618	7.5	<0.01	1.42 (1.11 to 1.82)
History of coronary artery disease	0.1235	3.4	0.07	1.25 (0.99 to 1.59)
History of abdominal aortic aneurysm	0.5953	23.7	<0.01	2.01 (1.54 to 2.63)
History of peripheral arterial disease	0.2607	7.9	<0.01	1.40 (1.11 to 1.77)
Carotid intima-media thickness (mm)	0.6482	16.4	<0.01	2.05 (1.46 to 2.86)
Carotid artery stenosis >50%	0.2615	5.4	0.02	1.31 (1.05 to 1.64)

Penalised coefficients of models A, B and C and accompanying χ² values, p values and (unpenalised) HRs.
*Risk models contain linear and squared terms for age and eGFR and natural log-transformed terms for hs-CRP. Therefore, the likelihood ratio test statistic and p value of age and eGFR are computed for both terms together. Furthermore, HRs were computed for the difference between the study population's 75th and the 25th percentile of age (ie, 69 vs 55 years), hs-CRP (ie, 4.7 mg/dl vs 1.0 mg/dl) and eGFR (ie, 72 vs 58 ml/min/173m²).
eGFR, glomerular filtration rate as estimated by the modification of diet in renal disease equation; HDL, high-density lipoprotein, hs-CRP, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein; LRT, likelihood ratio test.