Discrimination and ratio of predicted to observed risk: QRISK2 and Framingham risk score by sex and ethnicity (95% CIs)
| QRISK2 score | Framingham CVD score | |
|---|---|---|
| Men | ||
| Europeans, n=1359 | ||
| AUROC | 0.70 (0.66 to 0.74) | 0.71 (0.67 to 0.75) |
| D statistic | 1.06 (0.82 to 1.30) | 1.13 (0.89 to 1.36) |
| R2 statistic % | 21.1 (13.9 to 28.6) | 23.3 (15.9 to 30.8) |
| Brier score | 0.11 (0.10 to 0.13) | 0.11 (0.10 to 0.12) |
| Predicted: observed | 0.78 (0.72 to 0.85) | 0.99 (0.96 to 1.00) |
| South Asians, n=1076 | ||
| AUROC | 0.73 (0.69 to 0.77) | 0.73 (0.69 to 0.77) |
| D statistic | 1.22 (0.99 to 1.45) | 1.23 (1.00 to 1.47) |
| R2 statistic % | 26.3 (19.0 to 33.5) | 26.6 (19.2 to 33.9) |
| Brier score | 0.14 (0.12 to 0.15) | 0.14 (0.12 to 0.15) |
| Predicted: observed | 0.71 (0.64 to 0.78) | 0.93 (0.88 to 0.96) |
| African Caribbeans, n=307 | ||
| AUROC | 0.67 (0.57 to 0.77) | 0.63 (0.53 to 0.73) |
| D statistic | 0.96 (0.32 to 1.59) | 0.80 (0.16 to 1.43) |
| R2 statistic % | 17.9 (2.4 to 37.6) | 13.2 (0.7 to 32.8) |
| Brier score | 0.063 (0.040 to 0.085) | 0.071 (0.052 to 0.091) |
| Predicted: observed | 0.95 (0.80 to 1.00) | 1.52 (1.24 to 2.06) |
| All, n=2742 | ||
| AUROC | 0.72 (0.69 to 0.74) | 0.72 (0.69 to 0.75) |
| D statistic | 1.20 (1.04 to 1.36) | 1.22 (1.06 to 1.38) |
| R2 statistic % | 25.7 (20.6 to 30.8) | 26.2 (21.1 to 31.3) |
| Brier score | 0.12 (0.11 to 0.13) | 0.12 (0.11 to 0.13) |
| Predicted: observed | 0.75 (0.71 to 0.80) | 0.99 (0.97 to 1.00) |
| Women | ||
| Europeans, n=444 | ||
| AUROC | 0.75 (0.67 to 0.82) | 0.73 (0.65 to 0.80) |
| D statistic | 1.33 (0.79 to 1.87) | 1.29 (0.75 to 1.83) |
| R2 statistic % | 29.7 (12.9 to 45.5) | 28.5 (11.8 to 44.6) |
| Brier score | 0.073 (0.046 to 0.10) | 0.074 (0.053 to 0.095) |
| Predicted: observed | 0.73 (0.57 to 0.88) | 0.74 (0.57 to 0.88) |
| South Asians, n=241 | ||
| AUROC | 0.75 (0.66 to 0.84) | 0.77 (0.69 to 0.86) |
| D statistic | 1.55 (0.91 to 2.19) | 1.59 (0.96 to 2.21) |
| R2 statistic % | 36.4 (16.6 to 53.3) | 37.6 (18.1 to 53.9) |
| Brier score | 0.10 (0.063 to 0.14) | 0.10 (0.073 to 0.13) |
| Predicted: observed | 0.52 (0.34 to 0.72) | 0.43 (0.25 to 0.63) |
| African Caribbeans, n=247 | ||
| AUROC | 0.65 (0.54 to 0.76) | 0.62 (0.48 to 0.75) |
| D statistic | 0.74 (0 to 1.63) | 0.68 (0 to 1.58) |
| R2 statistic % | 11.6 (0.1 to 38.9) | 10.0 (0.04 to 37.2) |
| Brier score | 0.066 (0.036 to 0.095) | 0.066 (0.036 to 0.096) |
| Predicted: observed | 1.22 (1.04 to 1.84) | 1.24 (1.07 to 2.00) |
| All, n=932 | ||
| AUROC | 0.73 (0.68 to 0.78) | 0.72 (0.67 to 0.78) |
| D statistic | 1.31 (0.94 to 1.68) | 1.30 (0.93 to 1.67) |
| R2 statistic % | 29.1 (17.5 to 40.2) | 28.7 (17.1 to 39.9) |
| Brier score | 0.078 (0.060 to 0.096) | 0.079 (0.061 to 0.096) |
| Predicted: observed | 0.74 (0.63 to 84) | 0.70 (0.59 to 0.80) |
AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve; CVD, cardiovascular disease.