Model performance metrics according to risk threshold applied
| Predicted risk threshold (%) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | Proportion ‘high’ risk (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 95.2 (85.7 to 100) | 41 (15.6 to 58.8) | 10.9 (74 to 13.3) | 99.1 (97.7 to 100) | 61.5 |
| 5 | 76.2 (65.7 to 93.2) | 58.8 (43.9 to 74.3) | 12.2 (10.1 to 17.6) | 97 (96.3 to 98.9) | 43.7 |
| 10 | 61.9 (39.4 to 74.5) | 80.7 (70.6 to 88.8) | 19.4 (13.2 to 27.3) | 96.6 (94.9 to 97.7) | 22.4 |
| 15 | 38.1 (18.2 to 61.7) | 90.4 (83.4 to 95) | 23 (15.9 to 32.9) | 95.1 (94.1 to 96.8) | 11.6 |
| 30 | 9.5 (2.2 to 32.9) | 98.6 (95.6 to 99.7) | 33.2 (10 to 64.9) | 93.5 (93.2 to 95.2) | 2 |
Figures in brackets represent 95% CIs determined by Bootstrap analyses.
NPV, negative predictive value, PPV, positive predictive value.