Table 3

Comparison of predictions of 5-year risk of a major vascular event or vascular death and initiation of RRT by the SHARP CKD-CVD model and external risk models

A. 5-year risk (%) of a major vascular event or vascular death*
Observed (95% CI)Predicted by the SHARP CKD-CVD modelPredicted by the Pooled Cohort Equations
SHARP participants overall14.3 (12.8 to 15.7)13.815.2
 Stage 3B8.6 (6.2 to 11.0)9.415.3
 Stage 412.7 (10.2 to 15.1)12.315.7
 Stage 5, not on RRT16.4 (12.4 to 20.2)15.620.5
 On dialysis19.3 (16.2 to 22.2)17.912.4
AURORA participants; on dialysis26.3 (23.0 to 30.0)20.19.4