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Predicting mortality after acute coronary syndromes in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
  1. Kieran J Rothnie1,2,
  2. Liam Smeeth2,3,
  3. Neil Pearce2,
  4. Emily Herrett2,
  5. Adam Timmis3,4,
  6. Harry Hemingway3,5,
  7. Jadwiga Wedzicha6,
  8. Jennifer K Quint1,2
  1. 1Respiratory Epidemiology, Occupational Medicine and Public Health, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
  2. 2Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
  3. 3Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, London, UK
  4. 4Barts NIHR Biomedical Research Unit, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK
  5. 5Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, University College London, London, UK
  6. 6Airway Disease, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK
  1. Correspondence to Kieran J Rothnie, Respiratory Epidemiology, Occupational Medicine and Public Health, National Heart and Lung Institute, Emmanuel Kaye Building, Imperial College London, London SW3 6LR, UK; k.rothnie{at}


Objective To assess the accuracy of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scores in predicting mortality at 6 months for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and to investigate how it might be improved.

Methods Data were obtained on 481 849 patients with acute coronary syndrome admitted to UK hospitals between January 2003 and June 2013 from the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project (MINAP) database. We compared risk of death between patients with COPD and those without COPD at 6 months, adjusting for predicted risk of death. We then assessed whether several modifications improved the accuracy of the GRACE score for people with COPD.

Results The risk of death after adjusting for GRACE score predicted that risk of death was higher for patients with COPD than that for other patients (RR 1.29, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.33). Adding smoking into the GRACE score model did not improve accuracy for patients with COPD. Either adding COPD into the model (relative risk (RR) 1.00, 0.94 to 1.02) or multiplying the GRACE score by 1.3 resulted in better performance (RR 0.99, 0.96 to 1.01).

Conclusions GRACE scores underestimate risk of death for people with COPD. A more accurate prediction of risk of death can be obtained by adding COPD into the GRACE score equation, or by multiplying the GRACE score predicted risk of death by 1.3 for people with COPD. This means that one third of patients with COPD currently classified as low risk should be classified as moderate risk, and could be considered for more aggressive early treatment after non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction or unstable angina.

This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work, for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See:

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