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Original research article
Longitudinal change in blood pressure is associated with cardiovascular disease mortality in a Chinese cohort

Abstract

Background A number of studies have demonstrated a J-shaped curve between blood pressure (BP) and all-cause mortality, but few studies have used longitudinal change in BP to study mortality in the Chinese population.

Methods We performed a 30-year follow-up study to examine the association between BP (at baseline and longitudinal change) and risk of mortality in the Linxian General Population Trial Cohort. At baseline, a total of 29 584 healthy adults were enrolled in the Linxian General Population Trial in 1985 and followed through to the end of 2014. The final analysis was restricted to 29 439 participants (55% women) after exclusion of outliers. We also examined the potential effects of BP trajectory patterns during the period of 1985–1999 on sequent risk of mortality. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs.

Results Compared with participants with normal BP, patients with prehypertension, stage 1, stage 2 or stage 3 hypertension had an increased risk of all-cause mortality, with HRs of 1.09 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.14), 1.34 (95% CI 1.28 to 1.40), 1.69 (95% CI 1.60 to 1.79) and 2.14 (95% CI 2.01 to 2.28), respectively. Relative to stable BP of normotension, having a rise in BP from normotension to hypertension or from prehypertension to hypertension both conferred an increased risk of total and cardiovascular disease and stroke mortality (total: HRs 1.22 (95% CI 1.12 to 1.34) and 1.36 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.51); cardiovascular disease: HRs 1.42 (95% CI 1.17 to 1.73) and 1.55 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.93); stroke: HRs 2.29 (95% CI 1.88 to 2.80) and 2.61 (95% CI 2.11 to 3.24), respectively).

Conclusions These findings emphasise that development of incident hypertension in middle age could increase the risk of total, cardiovascular disease and stroke mortality, and suggest that current BP targets could be revised.

Trial registration number NCT00342654;Post-results.

  • heart disease
  • epidemiology
  • stroke
  • hypertension

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