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The risk model of choice for coronary surgery in the UK
  1. M Petrou1,
  2. F Roques4,
  3. L D Sharples1,
  4. R Kinsman3,
  5. B Keogh2,
  6. F Carey1,
  7. S A M Nashef1
  1. 1Papworth Hospital, Papworth Everard, Cambridge, UK
  2. 2Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, UK
  3. 3Dendrite Clinical Systems, Playhatch, UK
  4. 4CHU Fort de France, Martinique, France
  1. Correspondence to:
    Mr S A M Nashef, Papworth Hospital, Cambridge CB3 8RE, UK;

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Coronary bypass surgery is perhaps the most investigated surgical procedure1 with clear end points for outcome such as operative mortality. Consequently, it has long been regarded as a sentinel operation for outcome.2,3 Over 25 000 coronary bypass operations are performed per year in the UK and the operative mortality has reached a plateau in recent years of approximately 3%. The risk that an individual patient will not survive surgery depends on many factors, some of which can be quantified and form the basis of risk scoring systems.

Several risk stratification systems have developed over recent years with varying complexity, including those based on simple additive models such as Parsonnet,4 EuroSCORE5–7 and others.8,9 More complex statistical algorithms using logistic regression10,11 and Bayes modelling8 also exist. The ideal model should have high …

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