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The applicability of the Framingham coronary heart disease prediction function to black and minority ethnic groups in the UK
  1. T P Quirke,
  2. P S Gill,
  3. J W Mant,
  4. T F Allan
  1. Health Inequalities and Cardiovascular Research Groups, Department of Primary Care and General Practice, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
  1. Correspondence to:
    Dr PS Gill, Department of Primary Care and General Practice, University of Birmingham, The Medical School, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK;

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In the UK, coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality is higher among the black and minority ethnic groups (BMEG).1 A number of clinical tools are available to calculate an individual’s absolute risk of developing CHD.2 These are based upon data derived from the Framingham heart study (FHS), the participants of which were white, middle class Americans.3 The prediction functions derived from the FHS data are multivariable mathematical weightings applied to major CHD risk factors to produce a probability estimate of developing CHD within a timeframe, and limitations are acknowledged when applying the Framingham data to other populations.4

Currently, data from UK cohort studies do not exist to test these functions among the BMEGs.

The aim of this study is to assess the applicability of the Framingham prediction function to BMEGs, by comparing the summary CHD risk scores between BMEG and whites, generated after application of the Framingham prediction function to individual cardiovascular risk factor data, and then to compare the relative summary risk scores with previously published measures of CHD mortality.1,5


Data on age, sex, self assessed ethnicity, smoking status, presence of ischaemic heart disease, diabetes, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol from the Health Surveys for England (HSE) 1998 and 1999 …

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