Objective To assess the role of four biomarkers of neuroendocrine activation and endothelial dysfunction in the longitudinal prediction of fragility fractures.

Methods We analysed a population-based prospective cohort of 5415 community-dwelling individuals (mean age, 68.9±6.2 years) enrolled in the Malmö Preventive Project followed during 8.1±2.9 years, and investigated the longitudinal association between C-terminal pro-arginine vasopressin (CT-proAVP), C-terminal endothelin-1 precursor fragment (CT-proET-1), the mid-regional fragments of pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) and pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP), and incident vertebral, pelvic and extremity fractures.

Results Overall, 1030 (19.0%) individuals suffered vertebral, pelvic or extremity fracture. They were older (70.7±5.8 vs 68.4±6.3 years), more likely women (46.9% vs 26.3%), had lower body mass index and diastolic blood pressure, were more often on antihypertensive treatment (44.1% vs 38.4%) and had more frequently history of fracture (16.3% vs 8.1%). Higher levels of MR-proADM (adjusted HR (aHR) per 1 SD: 1.51, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.28, p<0.001) and MR-proANP (aHR: 1.23, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.45, p<0.001) were independently associated with increased risk of any fracture. The fracture risk increased linearly across MR-proANP quartiles. Individuals who were in the top quartile of all four biomarkers had a significant higher risk of fracture at any site (aHR: 2.32, 95% CI 1.86 to 2.91), vertebral fracture (aHR: 3.16, 95% CI 1.97 to 5.07) and femoral fracture (aHR: 2.35, 95% CI 1.64 to 3.36).

Conclusions Elevated levels of MR-proADM and MR-proANP independently predict fragility fractures in older adults. In subjects with top quartile levels of all four biomarkers there is a twofold to threefold increase in risk of vertebral and femoral fractures.