Article Text
Abstract
Objective To comprehensively examine the potential impacts of prenatal experience of the Chinese Great Famine on chronic disease risks in the middle age.
Methods This study included 92 284 participants aged 39–51 years from China Kadoorie Biobank born around the famine period and without major chronic diseases at baseline. We categorised participants into non-famine births (born between 1 October 1956 and 30 September 1958, and 1 October 1962 and 30 September 1964) and famine births (born between 1 October 1959 and 30 September 1961). The outcomes were incident cardiovascular disease, cancer and respiratory system disease. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted HR and 95% CI for famine exposure. Subgroup analyses were performed according to baseline characteristics.
Results During a median 10.1 years of follow-up, we identified 4626 incident ischaemic heart disease (IHD) cases, 7332 cerebrovascular disease cases, 3111 cancer cases and 16 081 respiratory system disease cases. In the whole population, prenatal famine exposure was not statistically associated with the risks of developing any chronic diseases in adulthood. However, for urban participants, compared with non-famine births, famine births had a higher risk of cerebrovascular disease (HR 1.18; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.28); such association was not shown for rural participants (p for interaction <0.001). Also, we observed the associations of prenatal famine exposure with IHD (HR 1.15; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.26) and cerebrovascular disease (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.21) in participants with lower physical activity level, but not in those with higher ones (all p for interaction=0.003).
Conclusion Our findings indicate that prenatal exposure to the Chinese famine might be associated with an increased cardiovascular risk and such risk may be modified by adult lifestyle.
- cardiac risk factors and prevention
- epidemiology
- stroke
- chronic coronary disease
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Footnotes
Collaborators Members of the China Kadoorie Biobank collaborative group: International Steering Committee: Junshi Chen, Zhengming Chen (PI), Robert Clarke, Rory Collins, Yu Guo, Liming Li (PI), Jun Lv, Richard Peto, Robin Walters. International Co-ordinating Centre, Oxford: Daniel Avery, Ruth Boxall, Derrick Bennett, Yumei Chang, Yiping Chen, Zhengming Chen, Robert Clarke, Huaidong Du, Simon Gilbert, Alex Hacker, Mike Hill, Michael Holmes, Andri Iona, Christiana Kartsonaki, Rene Kerosi, Ling Kong, Om Kurmi, Garry Lancaster, Sarah Lewington, Kuang Lin, John McDonnell, Iona Millwood, Qunhua Nie, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishnan, Paul Ryder, Sam Sansome, Dan Schmidt, Paul Sherliker, Rajani Sohoni, Becky Stevens, Iain Turnbull, Robin Walters, Jenny Wang, Lin Wang, Neil Wright, Ling Yang, Xiaoming Yang. National Co-ordinating Centre, Beijing: Zheng Bian, Yu Guo, Xiao Han, Can Hou, Jun Lv, Pei Pei, Chao Liu, Yunlong Tan, Canqing Yu. 10 Regional Co-ordinating Centres: Qingdao CDC: Zengchang Pang, Ruqin Gao, Shanpeng Li, Shaojie Wang, Yongmei Liu, Ranran Du, Yajing Zang, Liang Cheng, Xiaocao Tian, Hua Zhang, Yaoming Zhai, Feng Ning, Xiaohui Sun, Feifei Li. Licang CDC: Silu Lv, Junzheng Wang, Wei Hou. Heilongjiang Provincial CDC: Mingyuan Zeng, Ge Jiang, Xue Zhou. Nangang CDC: Liqiu Yang, Hui He, Bo Yu, Yanjie Li, Qinai Xu,Quan Kang, Ziyan Guo. Hainan Provincial CDC: Dan Wang, Ximin Hu, Jinyan Chen, Yan Fu, Zhenwang Fu, Xiaohuan Wang. Meilan CDC: Min Weng, Zhendong Guo, Shukuan Wu,Yilei Li, Huimei Li, Zhifang Fu. Jiangsu Provincial CDC: Ming Wu, Yonglin Zhou, Jinyi Zhou, Ran Tao, Jie Yang, Jian Su. Suzhou CDC: Fang Liu, Jun Zhang, Yihe Hu, Yan Lu, Liangcai Ma, Aiyu Tang, Shuo Zhang, Jianrong Jin, Jingchao Liu. Guangxi Provincial CDC: Zhenzhu Tang, Naying Chen, Ying Huang. Liuzhou CDC: Mingqiang Li, Jinhuai Meng, Rong Pan, Qilian Jiang, Jian Lan, Yun Liu, Liuping Wei, Liyuan Zhou, Ningyu Chen Ping Wang, Fanwen Meng, Yulu Qin, Sisi Wang. Sichuan Provincial CDC: Xianping Wu, Ningmei Zhang, Xiaofang Chen, Weiwei Zhou. Pengzhou CDC: Guojin Luo, Jianguo Li, Xiaofang Chen, Xunfu Zhong, Jiaqiu Liu, Qiang Sun. Gansu Provincial CDC: Pengfei Ge, Xiaolan Ren, Caixia Dong. Maiji CDC: Hui Zhang, Enke Mao, Xiaoping Wang, Tao Wang, Xi Zhang. Henan Provincial CDC: Ding Zhang, Gang Zhou, Shixian Feng, Liang Chang, Lei Fan. Huixian CDC: Yulian Gao, Tianyou He, Huarong Sun, Pan He, Chen Hu, Xukui Zhang, Huifang Wu, Pan He. Zhejiang Provincial CDC: Min Yu, Ruying Hu, Hao Wang. Tongxiang CDC: Yijian Qian, Chunmei Wang, Kaixu Xie, Lingli Chen, Yidan Zhang, Dongxia Pan, Qijun Gu. Hunan Provincial CDC: Yuelong Huang, Biyun Chen, Li Yin, Huilin Liu, Zhongxi Fu, Qiaohua Xu. Liuyang CDC: Xin Xu, Hao Zhang, Huajun Long, Xianzhi Li, Libo Zhang, Zhe Qiu.
Contributors RM and JL conceived and designed the paper. LL, ZC and JC, as the members of CKB steering committee, designed and supervised the conduct of the whole study, obtained funding and together with CY, YG, ZB, LY, YC, HD, LZ and YL coordinated the data acquisition (for baseline, resurveys and long-term follow-up) and standardisation. RM, JS and JN analysed the data. RM and JL drafted the manuscript. JL and LL contributed to the interpretation of the results and critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content and approved the final version of the manuscript. All authors reviewed and approved the final manuscript.
Funding This work was supported by grants (81373082 and 91846303) from the National Natural Science Foundation of China. The CKB baseline survey and the first re-survey were supported by a grant from the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation in Hong Kong. The long-term follow-up is supported by grants from the UK Wellcome Trust (202922/Z/16/Z, 088158/Z/09/Z, 104085/Z/14/Z), Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2011BAI09B01), National Natural Science Foundation of China (81390540, 81390544, 81390541), and National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFC0900500, 2016YFC0900501, 2016YFC0900504).
Competing interests None declared.
Patient consent for publication Not required.
Ethics approval The Ethical Review Committee of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Beijing, China) and the Oxford Tropical Research Ethics Committee, University of Oxford (UK) approved the study.
Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.
Data availability statement Data are available on reasonable request.