Objective Examine if two inexpensive measures of atherosclerotic vascular diseases (ASVD), abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) provide complementary information for 10-year ASVD mortality and all-cause mortality risk in older women.
Methods 908 community-dwelling women without prevalent ASVD (≥75 years) were followed-up between 2003 and 2013. AAC and plasma hs-cTnI measures were obtained in 2003. AAC was assessed on lateral spine images using a semiquantitative method (AAC24). Linked health records were used for mortality outcomes.
Results Mean±SD age was 79.9±2.6 years. 276 (30.4%) women died during follow-up, including 138 (15.2%) ASVD-related deaths. AAC24 and hs-cTnI were independently associated with ASVD and all-cause mortality (p<0.001). The cohort was dichotomised into four groups: (1) low AAC24 (AAC24: 0 or 1) and <median hs-cTnI (n=163, referent), (2) moderate-extensive AAC24 (AAC24:>1) and <median hs-cTnI (n=280), (3) low AAC24 and ≥median hs-cTnI (n=148) and (4) moderate-extensive AAC24 and ≥median hs-cTnI (n=317). Compared with the referent group, a stepwise increase in relative hazard (HR (95% CI)) for ASVD mortality was seen at 2.39 (1.05 to 5.46), 3.18 (1.35 to 7.79) and 5.38 (2.44 to 11.85), respectively. A similar associations were observed for all-cause mortality, at 1.58 (0.99–2.52), 2.38 (1.46–3.89) and 3.02 (1.93–4.72), respectively (all p<0.05).
Conclusion Higher AAC and elevated hs-cTnI were associated with higher risk of ASVD mortality and all-cause mortality, independent of each other. Stratifying by moderate to extensive AAC and elevated hs-cTnI identified women at very high risk. Further studies investigating whether combining factors may improve risk prediction are needed.
Trial registration number ACTRN12617000640303.
- diagnostic imaging
Data availability statement
Data are available on reasonable request. Data used for this paper are available on reasonable request from the corresponding author or through the study website http://www.lsaw.com.au/.
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