TY - JOUR T1 - Ambulatory blood pressure and long-term risk for atrial fibrillation JF - Heart JO - Heart SP - 1263 LP - 1270 DO - 10.1136/heartjnl-2017-312488 VL - 104 IS - 15 AU - Valérie Tikhonoff AU - Tatiana Kuznetsova AU - Lutgarde Thijs AU - Nicholas Cauwenberghs AU - Katarzyna Stolarz-Skrzypek AU - Jitka Seidlerová AU - Sofia Malyutina AU - Natasza Gilis-Malinowska AU - Ewa Swierblewska AU - Kalina Kawecka-Jaszcz AU - Jan Filipovský AU - Krzysztof Narkiewicz AU - Gregory Y H Lip AU - Edoardo Casiglia AU - Jan A Staessen A2 - , Y1 - 2018/08/01 UR - http://heart.bmj.com/content/104/15/1263.abstract N2 - Objective Data on the contribution of ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) components to the risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) are limited. We prospectively tested the hypothesis that ABP may represent a potentially modifiable risk factor for the development of AF in a European population study.Methods We recorded daytime blood pressure (BP) in 3956 subjects randomly recruited from the general population in five European countries. Of these participants, 2776 (70.2%) underwent complete 24-hour ABP monitoring. Median follow-up was 14 years. We defined daytime systolic BP load as the percentage BP readings above 135 mm Hg. The incidence of AF was assessed from ECGs obtained at baseline and follow-up and from records held by general practitioners and/or hospitals.Results Overall, during 58 810 person-years of follow-up, 143 participants experienced new-onset AF. In adjusted Cox models, each SD increase in baseline 24 hours, daytime and night-time systolic BP was associated with a 27% (P=0.0056), 22% (P=0.023) and 20% (P=0.029) increase in the risk for incident AF, respectively. Conventional systolic BP was borderline associated with the risk of AF (18%; P=0.06). As compared with the average population risk, participants in the lower quartile of daytime systolic BP load (<3%) had a 51% (P=0.0038) lower hazard for incident AF, whereas in the upper quartile (>38%), the risk was 46% higher (P=0.0094).Conclusions Systolic ABP is a significant predictor of incident AF in a population-based cohort. We also observed that participants with a daytime systolic BP load >38% had significantly increased risk of incident AF. ER -