RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis JF Heart JO Heart FD BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and British Cardiovascular Society SP 377 OP 383 DO 10.1136/heartjnl-2011-300475 VO 98 IS 5 A1 Ingar Holme A1 Terje R Pedersen A1 Kurt Boman A1 Kenneth Egstrup A1 Eva Gerdts A1 Y Antero Kesäniemi A1 William Malbecq A1 Simon Ray A1 Anne B Rossebø A1 Kristian Wachtell A1 Ronnie Willenheimer A1 Christa Gohlke-Bärwolf YR 2012 UL http://heart.bmj.com/content/98/5/377.abstract AB Background Prognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.Objectives To develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk of mortality, using data from the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study.Method A search for significant prognostic factors (p<0.01) among SEAS patients was made by a combined judgemental and statistical elimination procedure to derive a set of three factors (age, gender and smoking) that were forced into the model, and four additional factors captured by the data: left-ventricular mass index, bilirubin, heart rate and natural logarithm of C reactive protein. Calibration was done by comparing observed with calculated number of deaths by tenths of calculated risk using coefficients from the simvastatin + ezetimibe group on placebo group patients.Results Discrimination was good with ROC area of 0.76 for all patients. Estimated probabilities of death were categorised into thirds. An optimised split point of estimated 5-year risk was about 15% (close to the upper 14% tertile split point), with risk 4 times as high in the upper compared to the two lower thirds. The SEAS score performed better than another established high risk score developed for other purposes.Conclusion A new seven factor model for risk stratification of patients with mild to moderate asymptomatic AS identified a high risk group for total mortality with good discrimination properties.Trial registration number ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT 00092677.