Table 3

 Hazard ratios (95% CI) for CHD and CVD events estimated from models fitted on BWHHS data using Framingham risk factors (model 1) and with addition of C-reactive protein and fibrinogen (model 2)

Model 1Model 2
AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BWHHS, British Women’s Heart and Health Study; CHD, coronary heart disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HDL, high density lipoprotein.
CHD event (n = 3582 women; n = 198 events)
Age (per 5 years)1.24 (1.08 to 1.42)1.24 (1.08 to 1.42)
Systolic blood pressure (per 10 mm Hg)1.06 (0.99 to 1.13)1.05 (0.99 to 1.13)
Total:HDL cholesterol ratio (log)2.26 (1.42 to 3.60)2.10 (1.31 to 3.37)
Current smoker2.35 (1.68 to 3.30)2.26 (1.60 to 3.19)
Left ventricular hypertrophy1.27 (0.84 to 1.93)1.24 (0.82 to 1.89)
Diabetes0.90 (0.46 to 1.77)0.87 (0.44 to 1.71)
C-reactive protein (log)1.09 (0.94 to 1.27)
Fibrinogen1.04 (0.82 to 1.31)
AUROC using rank0.64 (0.60 to 0.69)0.64 (0.60 to 0.69)
P value for difference in AUROCs = 0.76
Sensitivity/specificity
    30% CHD risk threshold5%/99%6%/99%
    15% CHD risk threshold30%/85%31%/86%
CVD event (n = 3511 women; n = 240 events)
Age (per 5 years)1.28 (1.13 to 1.45)1.28 (1.13 to 1.45)
Systolic blood pressure (per 10 mm Hg)1.04 (0.98 to 1.11)1.04 (0.98 to 1.10)
Total:HDL cholesterol ratio (log)2.20 (1.42 to 3.43)2.04 (1.29 to 3.21)
Current smoker2.65 (1.96 to 3.59)2.55 (1.87 to 3.46)
Left ventricular hypertrophy1.35 (0.92 to 1.97)1.32 (0.90 to 1.93)
Diabetes1.06 (0.59 to 1.90)1.02 (0.56 to 1.83)
C-reactive protein (log)1.11 (0.96 to 1.27)
Fibrinogen1.03 (0.83 to 1.28)
AUROC using rank0.65 (0.62 to 0.69)0.66 (0.62 to 0.69)
P value for difference in AUROCs = 0.63
Sensitivity/specificity
    30% CVD risk threshold12%/97%13%/97%
    15% CVD risk threshold46%/75%46%/74%