Performance of the two risk scores by fifths of the Scottish Index of Deprivation, designating the top 20% for each score as “high risk” in each sex, and combining them (SHHEC population age 30–74)
| Fifths of Scottish Index of Deprivation | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Observed/expected ratios by SIMD fifths. Testing for trend: p = 0.002 for Framingham, p = 0.35 (NS) for ASSIGN.14 | ||||||
| †Unanticipated event rates by SIMD fifths. Testing for trend: p<0.001 for Framingham, p = 0.17 (NS) for ASSIGN.14 | ||||||
| Number of people | 2372 | 1985 | 2210 | 2533 | 4197 | 13 297 |
| Number of events in 10 years | 113 | 140 | 185 | 239 | 488 | 1165 |
| Observed event rate % in 10 years | 4.8 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 8.8 |
| Framingham cardiovascular score | ||||||
| Expected rate % from applying score | 10.1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 14.6 | 12.8 |
| Observed/expected ratio* | 0.47 | 0.59 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| % of SIMD group in top 20% of risk score | 11.4 | 16.6 | 17.3 | 21.6 | 26.9 | 20.0 |
| Events anticipated in top 20% of risk score | 35 | 59 | 68 | 116 | 253 | 531 |
| Sensitivity for anticipating events, % | 31.0 | 42.1 | 36.8 | 48.5 | 51.8 | 45.6 |
| Specificity for absence of events, % | 89.6 | 85.4 | 84.4 | 81.2 | 76.4 | 82.5 |
| Positive predictive value, % | 13.0 | 17.9 | 17.8 | 21.2 | 22.4 | 20.0 |
| Negative predictive value, % | 96.3 | 95.1 | 93.6 | 93.8 | 92.3 | 94.0 |
| Likelihood ratio = sensitivity/(1−specificity) | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Success rate (% correctly categorised) | 86.8 | 82.3 | 80.5 | 78.1 | 73.5 | 79.2 |
| Event rate for anticipated events, % | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 4.0 |
| Event rate for unanticipated events, %† | 3.3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 4.8 |
| ASSIGN cardiovascular score | ||||||
| Expected rate % from applying score | 8.1 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 15.8 | 11.8 |
| Observed/expected ratio* | 0.59 | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| % of SIMD group in top 20% of risk score | 7.8 | 11.9 | 14.3 | 20.1 | 33.7 | 20.0 |
| Events anticipated in top 20% of risk score | 30 | 43 | 59 | 109 | 298 | 539 |
| Sensitivity, % | 26.5 | 30.7 | 31.9 | 45.6 | 61.1 | 46.3 |
| Specificity, % | 93.2 | 89.5 | 87.4 | 82.5 | 69.9 | 82.5 |
| Positive predictive value, % | 16.3 | 18.2 | 18.7 | 21.4 | 21.1 | 20.3 |
| Negative predictive value, % | 96.2 | 94.5 | 93.4 | 93.6 | 93.2 | 94.1 |
| Likelihood ratio = sensitivity/(1−specificity) | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Success rate (% correctly categorised) | 90.0 | 85.4 | 82.7 | 79.0 | 68.9 | 79.3 |
| Event rate for anticipated events, % | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 |
| Event rate for unanticipated events, %† | 3.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.7 |