Table 5 Cost-effectiveness results for alternative scenarios around estimated effectiveness

	Pooled treatment effect from eight trials in this patient population*					Treatment effect permitted to vary according to baseline risk in RITA 3*
	Risk group 1	Risk group 2	Risk group 3	Risk group 4a	Risk group 4b	Risk group 1	Risk group 2	Risk group 3	Risk group 4a	Risk group 4b
Odds ratio index hospitalisation with early intervention	1.42	1.42	1.42	1.42	1.42	1.71	1.67	1.67	1.56	1.47
Hazard ratio in follow-up period with early intervention	0.69	0.69	0.69	0.69	0.69	0.86	0.80	0.72	0.62	0.50
Incremental cost (£)	4819	4852	5788	6163	6129	4746	4774	5574	6552	7214
Incremental QALY	0.082	0.185	0.240	0.452	0.418	−0.019	0.095	0.188	0.551	0.689
ICER (£)	58 490	26 265	24 143	13 646	14 673	Dominated	50 131	29 711	11 898	10 476
Probability early interventional strategy is cost-effective at £20 000 (£30 000) per QALY†	0.002 (0.057)	0.185 (0.628)	0.248 (0.706)	0.869 (0.964)	0.828 (0.958)	0.001 (0.025)	0.069 (0.263)	0.168 (0.506)	0.940 (0.983)	0.979 (0.994)

*Details of meta-analysis and interaction models are available in the technical report (see supplementary report). Illustrative patients based on predicted risk of death or MI as defined in RITA 3 represent each risk group 2.
†Proportion of simulation in the probabilistic analysis with an ICER below £20 000 (£30 000).
ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; QALY, quality-adjusted life year.