Table 5 Comparison of the performances of the original and revised EMMACE models for 30-day mortality by MINAP discharge diagnosis
Discharge diagnosisC-index (95% CI)No of subjectsLinear predictor for 30-day mortality (L30)
STEMI (revised EMMACE model)0.80 (0.79 to 0.80)34 986−6.914+0.081× age+0.016×HR –0.016× SBP
NSTEMI0.76 (0.75 to 0.76)42 582−5.538+0.068×age+0.007×HR –0.018×SBP
Troponin-negative ACS0.77 (0.72 to 0.83)7369−13.340+0.099×age+0.020×HR –0.001× SBP
Chest pain of ? cause0.84 (0.77 to 0.92)3816−9.864+0.099×age+0.027×HR –0.016×SBP
Unconfirmed AMI0.73 (0.69 to 0.78)523−2.106+0.058×age+0.003×HR –0.015×SBP
Other diagnoses0.77 (0.75 to 0.78)7051−6.442+0.070×age+0.009×HR –0.014×SBP
All ACS patients0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)100 686−6.057+0.072×age+0.010×HR –0.017×SBP
Original EMMACE model (STEMI)0.76 (0.72 to 0.79)2153−5.624+0.085×age+0.014×HR –0.022×SBP
  • STEMI, ST-elevation myocardial infarction with ECG evidence of ST-elevation consistence with infarction of ⩾2 mm in contiguous chest leads and or ST-elevation of ⩾1 mm in two or more standard leads, new left bundle branch block (LBBB) is also included. There is a creatinine kinase (CK) rise >2× upper limit of normal or troponin rise defined locally as that of an AMI. This group also contains threatened AMI as defined by rapid resolution of ST-elevation after reperfusion therapy associated with a CK rise <2× upper limit of normal or a small troponin rise.

  • NSTEMI, non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction with a history and ECG changes consistent with the diagnosis, and a CK rise >2× upper limit of normal or troponin rise defined locally as that of an AMI. This group also includes troponin-positive ACS as defined by symptoms consistent with cardiac ischaemia with release of troponin.

  • Troponin-negative ACS, symptoms consistent with cardiac ischaemia, and dynamic ECG changes with no release of troponin.

  • Chest pain of uncertain cause, any patient with chest pain not accompanied by significant ECG change or enzyme release and where no other clear diagnosis emerges.

  • Unconfirmed myocardial infarction, a history of chest pain of ECG changes, but where the patient dies before enzymes release or samples are taken.

  • Other diagnoses, any diagnosis other than cardiac ischaemia for patients admitted with suspected chest pain.