Table 2

Baseline systolic blood pressure by JNC-7 categories and risk for incident heart failure

UnadjustedAdjusted
SHR (95% CI)p ValueSHR (95% CI)p Value
Total cohort (n=4408)
Optimal (<120 mm Hg)1.001.00
Prehypertension (120–139 mm Hg)1.83 (1.39 to 2.41)<0.0011.63 (1.23 to 2.16)0.001
Stage 1 hypertension (140–159 mm Hg)2.65 (2.00 to 3.53)<0.0012.21 (1.65 to 2.96)<0.001
Stage 2 hypertension (≥160 mm Hg)3.50 (2.54 to 4.80)<0.0012.60 (1.85 to 3.64)<0.001
Men (n=2066)
Optimal (<120 mm Hg)1.001.00
Prehypertension (120–139 mm Hg)1.28 (0.91 to 1.81)0.161.25 (0.88 to 1.77)0.22
Stage 1 hypertension (140–159 mm Hg)2.02 (1.42 to 2.87)<0.0011.84 (1.28 to 2.64)0.001
Stage 2 hypertension (≥160 mm Hg)2.63 (1.76 to 3.94)<0.0012.11 (1.38 to 3.23)0.001
Women n=(2342)
Optimal (<120 mm Hg)1.001.00
Prehypertension (120–139 mm Hg)3.02 (1.88 to 4.85)<0.0012.51 (1.55 to 4.06)<0.001
Stage 1 hypertension (140–159 mm Hg)3.97 (2.43 to 6.49)<0.0013.09 (1.87 to 5.11)<0.001
Stage 2 hypertension (≥160 mm Hg)5.36 (3.15 to 9.13)<0.0013.74 (2.15 to 6.50)<0.001
White (n=3600)
Optimal (<120 mm Hg)1.001.00
Prehypertension (120–139 mm Hg)1.84 (1.37 to 2.47)<0.0011.62 (1.20 to 2.19)0.002
Stage 1 hypertension (140–159 mm Hg)2.66 (1.96 to 3.60)<0.0012.17 (1.59 to 2.97)<0.001
Stage 2 hypertension (≥160 mm Hg)3.59 (2.56 to 5.03)<0.0012.59 (1.81 to 3.72)<0.001
Black (n=808)
Optimal (<120 mm Hg)1.001.00
Prehypertension (120–139 mm Hg)1.94 (0.85 to 4.41)0.111.68 (0.73 to 3.87)0.22
Stage 1 hypertension (140–159 mm Hg)2.94 (1.28 to 6.75)0.0112.49 (1.07 to 5.78)0.034
Stage 2 hypertension (≥160 mm Hg)3.44 (1.37 to 8.65)0.0092.69 (1.05 to 6.91)0.039
  • Adjustment model: cohort (Health ABC, CHS), gender (for total cohort analysis), race (white, black), age, body mass index, history of coronary heart disease, history of smoking, history of diabetes, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, heart rate, fasting glucose, creatinine, albumin, total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and triglyceride levels.

  • CI, confidence interval; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; SHR, subhazard ratio for incident heart failure (competing risk: death).