Table 1

Cardiovascular prediction models specifically developed for patients with type 2 diabetes

ReferenceDevelopment populationn events/n totalType of modelOutcomePredicted yearsNumber of predictorsApparent discrimination (AUC)Apparent calibration (p value Hosmer–Lemeshow)Method of internal validationPresentation of risk model
Kengne 2011 (ADVANCE)24NIDDM from 20 countries473/7168CoxCVD4100.700.70*0.76BootstrappingOriginal model and scoring chart
Davis 2010 (Fremantle)25NIDDM from Australia185/1240LogisticCVD570.800.74NAOriginal model
Elley 2010 (DCS)26NIDDM from New Zealand6479/36 127CoxCVD and CHD5109CVD: 0.68, 0.67CHD: 0.71, 0.71GoodNAOriginal model
Cederholm 200827NIDDM from Sweden1482/11 646CoxCVD560.70*0.08*Split sampleOriginal model
Yang 200828NIDDM from China351/7067CoxCHD570.70*Good, p>0.05*Split sampleOriginal model
Yang 2008 (2)29NIDDM from China274/7067CoxHeart failure560.85*Good, p>0.10*Split sampleOriginal model
Yang 200730NIDDM from China332/7209CoxStroke540.75*Good, p>0.05*Split sampleOriginal model
Donnan 2006 (DARTS)31NIDDM from Scotland243/4569WeibullCHD590.710.54Split sampleOriginal model
Folsom 2003 (ARIC)32NIDDM from USA128/1273CoxCHD108170.76 (men), 0.78 (women)0.70 (men), 0.72 (women)NAOriginal model and simplified model
Kothari 2002 (UKPDS risk engine)22Newly diagnosed NIDDM from UK188/4549GompertzStrokeVariable7NRNRNAOriginal model, risk software
Stevens 2001 (UKPDS risk engine)23Newly diagnosed NIDDM from UKNR/4540GompertzCHDVariable7NRNRNAOriginal model, risk software
Yudkin 199933NIDDM from USNR/2138NRCHD106NRNRNAScoring chart
  • Displayed are the type of model, the outcome, predicted risk period, population in which it was developed and the apparent (ie, as quantified in the original development study) discrimination and calibration.

  • For details on risk factors included in the models, see online appendix.

  • * Discrimination after correction for overfitting.

  • Values of the simplified risk or sum score.

  • AUC, area under the curve; CHD, coronary heart disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; NIDDM, non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus; NR, not reported.