Table 2

Cardiovascular risk models developed in general populations with diabetes as risk factor

ReferenceDevelopment populationn events/n totalType of modelOutcomePredicted yearsNumber of predictorsApparent discrimination (AUC)Apparent calibration (p value Hosmer–Lemeshow)Method of internal validationPresentation of risk model
Chien 201034Chinese GP240/3602CoxStroke1080.77NRCross-validationOriginal model, scoring chart, nomogram
Hippisley-Cox 2010 (QRISK)35British GP121 623/1 267 159CoxCVDLifetime14Women: 0.84*Men: 0.83*Good*Split sampleOriginal model
McGorrian 2011 (IHMRS)36GP from 52 countries12 438/27 043LogisticMINR60.710.0004Split sampleOriginal model
Arima 200937Japanese GP216/2742CoxCVD1470.81*0.60*Split sampleOriginal model, scoring chart
Ishikawa 2009 (JMS cohort study)38Japanese GP255/12 276CoxStroke105NRNRNAScoring chart
Matsumoto 2009 (JMS cohort study)39Japanese GP92/12 323CoxMI106NRNRNAScoring chart
Pencina 2009 (Framingham)40USA GP671/4506CoxCVD3080.80, 0.80*p=0.913, p=0.894*Cross-validationOriginal model
D'Agostino 2008 (Framingham)41US GP641/8491CoxCVD107Men: 0.76Women: 0.79Men: 0.75Women: 0.79p=0.14–0.56NAOriginal model, simplified model, scoring chart
Hippisley-Cox 2008 (QRISK2)42British GP140 115/1 535 583CoxCVD1014Women: 0.82Men: 0.79Good*Split sampleOriginal model
Assmann 200743 (PROCAM)German GP596/35 100CHD: Weibull Stroke: CoxCHD and stroke10CHD: 8Stroke: 5CHD: 0.81, Stroke: 0.71NRNAOriginal model, scoring chart
Ridker 2007 (Reynolds risk score)44US GP504/24 558CoxCVD1090.81, 0.81*p=0.38, p=0.62*Split sampleOriginal model, simplified model
Woodward 2007 (ASSIGN)45GP from Scotland422/13 297CoxCVD109Men: 0.73Women: 0.77NRNAOriginal model
Asia-Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration 200646Asian GP2265/364 566CoxCHD mortality86NRNRNAOriginal model
Lee 2006 (Strong Heart Study)47American Indian GP724/4372CoxCHD109Men: 0.73 Women: 0.71Men: 0.70*Women: 0.72*Men p=0.45Women p=0.51BootstrapOriginal model
Mainous 2007 (Personal HEART)48USA GP1108/14 343CoxCHD109Men: 0.65* Women: 0.79*NRSplit sampleOriginal model, scoring chart
Wu 200649Chinese GP742/9903CoxIschaemic CVD107Men: 0.80Women: 0.79Men: p=0.733Women: p=0.274NAOriginal model, simplified model, scoring chart
Ferrario 2005 (CUORE)50GP Italian men312/6865CoxCHD1080.75, 0.74*>0.05Bootstrap and split sampleOriginal model
Menotti 2005 (Riskard 2005)51Italian GP1382/17 153WeibullCVD5, 10, 159NRNRNAOriginal model, risk chart, risk software
Decode study Group 200452European GP791/25 413CoxCVD death5, 106NRNRNAOriginal model
Liu 2004 (CMCS)53Chinese GP816/30 121CoxCHD and mortality1060.730.08NAOriginal model
Pignone 200454NRNRNRCHD108NRNRNARisk software
Schau 200355NRNRNRStrokeNR8NRNRNARisk software
Assmann 2002 (PROCAM)56German men325/5345CoxCHD1080.830.82 scoring chartP>0.03NAOriginal model and scoring chart
Lumley 2002 (CHS)57GP of elderly399/5888CoxStroke5100.65 (men)*0.77 (women)*NRSplit sample, BootstrapOriginal model, scoring chart, risk software
Menotti 2002 (Riscard 2002)58Italian GP544/9771WeibullCHD and CVA and CVD59CHD: 0.76CVA: 0.86NRNAOriginal mode, risk software
Moons 2002 (EUROSTROKE)59European GP219/698LogisticStroke760.69*>0.50BootstrapOriginal model
Thomsen 2001 (Copenhagen Risk Score)60European GP509/24 508CoxMI5, 10, 209NRNRNAOriginal model, risk software
Knuiman 199861Australian GP519/2258CoxMortality or CHD1010NRNRNAOriginal model
Wilson 1998 (Framingham)62US GP610/5345CoxCHD107Men: 0.74Women: 0.76Men: 0.68Women: 0.71NRNAOriginal model and score sheet
Wood 1998 (JBSRC)63NRNRNRCHD107NRNRNARisk chart
Zodpey 199464Indian GP154/308LogisticCHDNR5NRNRNAScoring chart
Anderson 1991 (Framingham)65US GPNR/5573WeibullCHD, stroke, CVD, CVD mortalityVariable7NRNRNAOriginal model
Anderson 1991(2) (Framingham)66US GP626/5573WeibullCHD5, 108NRNRNAOriginal model scoring chart
  • Displayed are the type of model, the outcome, predicted risk period, population in which it was developed and the apparent (ie, as quantified in the original development study) discrimination and calibration.

  • For details on risk factors included in the models, see online appendix.

  • * After correction.

  • Values of the simplified risk or sum score.

  • AUC, area under the curve; CHD, coronary heart disease; CVA, cerebrovascular accident; CVD, cardiovascular disease; GP, general population; MI, myocardial infarction; NR, not reported.