Table 3

Overview of the cardiovascular risk scores that have been externally validated in a diabetes population

ReferenceNumber of studiesValidation studyPopulationN events/total nOutcomePredicted yearsDiscrimination (AUC)Calibration (p value Hosmer–Lemeshow)
Models for diabetes population
 Kengne 2011 (ADVANCE)24124Kengne 201124NIDDM with microalbuminuria/proteinuria from 16 countries183/1836CVD40.690.03
 Davis 2010 (Fremantle)25125Davis 201025NIDDM from Australia24/180CVD or death50.840.85
 Elley 2010 (DCS)26126Elley 201026NIDDM from New ZealandNR/12 598CVD50.69Good
 Donnan 2006 (DARTS)31131Donnan 200631NIDDM from UKNR/NRCHD50.690.54
 Kothari 2002 (UKPDS risk engine)22267 68Kengne 200967NIDDM from 20 countries288/7502CVA4 years0.61<0.001
Davis 200968NIDDM from Australia23/791Stroke50.86>0.05
 Stevens 2001 (UKPDS risk engine)2397 9 67–73Kengne 200967 *NIDDM from 20 countries407/7502CHD40.66<0.001
Models for general population
 McGorrian 2011 (IHMRS)36136McGorrian 201136IFG, IGT or NIDDM from 21 countries95/18 838MI3.250.690.93
 D'Agostino 2008 (Framingham)41367 71 73Kengne 200967NIDDM from 20 countries1003/7502CVD40.80<0.001
Simmons 200873NIDDM from UK69/272CVD100.730.02
Guzder 200571Newly diagnosed NIDDM from UK98/428CVD100.67<0.001
 Ferrario 2005 (CUORE)5019Pellegrini 20109NIDDM228/1532CVD10 years0.64Risk underestimated
 Decode study Group 200452174Coleman 200774Newly diagnosed diabetesNR/5102Fatal CVD/fatal CHD100.67Risk overestimated
 Assmann 2002 (PROCAM)5617Stephens 20047NIDDM from UK332/798CVD and CHD10CHD: 0.65CVD: 0.67CHD: p=0.05CVD: p=0.006
 Menotti 2002 (Riscard 2002)5819Pellegrini 20109NIDDM228/1532CVD10 years0.59Good
 Wilson 1998 (Framingham)6249 68 72 75Pellegrini 20109NIDDM228/1532CVD100.68Risk overestimated
Davis 200968NIDDM from Australia38/791CHD50.59<0.001
Van der Heijden 200972NIDDM from the Netherlands28/125CHD100.63Risk overestimated
Game 200176NIDDM from UKNR/956CHD10 yearsNRHigh sensitivity, low specificity
 Anderson 1991 (Framingham)65 66367 74 77Kengne 200967NIDDM from 20 countries1003/7502CVD40.56<0.001
Coleman 200774Newly diagnosed diabetesNR/5102Fatal CVD/fatal CHD100.76Risk underestimated
McEwan 200477NIDDM and IDDM from UK172/938CHD4Men: 0.65Women: 0.68NR
  • * Only the study with the greatest study population has been displayed, an overview of all validation studies of the UKPDS risk engine is available in the online appendix table 3.

  • AUC, area under the curve; CHD, coronary heart disease; CVA, cerebrovascular accident; CVD, cardiovascular disease; IDDM, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus; IFG, impaired fasting glucose; IGT, impaired glucose tolerance; NIDDM, non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus; NR, not reported; UKPDS, United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study.