Variable | Coefficient (SE) | p Value^{*} |

Age at diagnosis (per 1 year increase) | 0.062 (0.008) | <0.001 |

Sex (women vs men) | −0.474 (0.098) | <0.001 |

Known duration of diabetes (per 1 year increase) | 0.083 (0.010) | <0.001 |

Pulse pressure (per 1 mm Hg increase) | 0.007 (0.003) | 0.016 |

Retinopathy (yes vs no) | 0.383 (0.101) | <0.001 |

Atrial fibrillation (present vs absent) | 0.601 (0.154) | <0.001 |

HbA1c (per 1% increase) | 0.099 (0.027) | <0.001 |

Log of urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (per 1 log mg/g increase) | 0.193 (0.033) | <0.001 |

Non-HDL cholesterol (per 1 mmol/l increase) | 0.126 (0.034) | <0.001 |

Treated hypertension (yes vs no) | 0.242 (0.106) | 0.022 |

Consider for example, a man diagnosed with diabetes at the age of 50, with a known duration of diabetes of 3 years, a pulse pressure of 50 mm Hg and treated for hypertension, a urinary albumin/creatinine ratio of 50 mg/g, an HbA1c of 7%, a non-HDL cholesterol of 3.3 mmol/litre, who has retinopathy and atrial fibrillation. The estimated risk based on the ADVANCE model is:

↵* Mutually adjusted. Baseline survival probability at 4 years

*S*_{0}(4) =0.951044. Based on the Cox model, the probability of an event at*t*years of follow-up is defined by the following formula: , where*S*_{0}(*t*) is the baseline survival at*t*years;*β*is the estimated regression coefficient,_{i}*X*is the value of the predictor; is the corresponding mean for continuous predictors or proportion for categorical predictors (to account for the fact that the value of_{i}*S*_{0}(*t*) is estimated at the mean level of predictors in the study population); and*p*denotes the number of predictors.HbA1c, haemoglobin A1c; HDL, high-density lipoprotein.