Table 1

Regression coefficients (95% CI) and SE for predictors in the final ADVANCE cardiovascular disease prediction model42

VariableCoefficient (SE)p Value*
Age at diagnosis (per 1 year increase)0.062 (0.008)<0.001
Sex (women vs men)−0.474 (0.098)<0.001
Known duration of diabetes (per 1 year increase)0.083 (0.010)<0.001
Pulse pressure (per 1 mm Hg increase)0.007 (0.003)0.016
Retinopathy (yes vs no)0.383 (0.101)<0.001
Atrial fibrillation (present vs absent)0.601 (0.154)<0.001
HbA1c (per 1% increase)0.099 (0.027)<0.001
Log of urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (per 1 log mg/g increase)0.193 (0.033)<0.001
Non-HDL cholesterol (per 1 mmol/l increase)0.126 (0.034)<0.001
Treated hypertension (yes vs no)0.242 (0.106)0.022

  • Consider for example, a man diagnosed with diabetes at the age of 50, with a known duration of diabetes of 3 years, a pulse pressure of 50 mm Hg and treated for hypertension, a urinary albumin/creatinine ratio of 50 mg/g, an HbA1c of 7%, a non-HDL cholesterol of 3.3 mmol/litre, who has retinopathy and atrial fibrillation. The estimated risk based on the ADVANCE model is:

  • Embedded Image

  • Embedded Image

  • Embedded Image

  • ↵* Mutually adjusted. Baseline survival probability at 4 years S0(4) =0.951044. Based on the Cox model, the probability Embedded Image of an event at t years of follow-up is defined by the following formula: Embedded Image, where S0(t) is the baseline survival at t years; βi is the estimated regression coefficient, Xi is the value of the predictor; Embedded Image is the corresponding mean for continuous predictors or proportion for categorical predictors (to account for the fact that the value of S0(t) is estimated at the mean level of predictors in the study population); and p denotes the number of predictors.

  • HbA1c, haemoglobin A1c; HDL, high-density lipoprotein.