Table 1

Regression coefficients (95% CI) and SE for predictors in the final ADVANCE cardiovascular disease prediction model42

 Variable Coefficient (SE) p Value* Age at diagnosis (per 1 year increase) 0.062 (0.008) <0.001 Sex (women vs men) −0.474 (0.098) <0.001 Known duration of diabetes (per 1 year increase) 0.083 (0.010) <0.001 Pulse pressure (per 1 mm Hg increase) 0.007 (0.003) 0.016 Retinopathy (yes vs no) 0.383 (0.101) <0.001 Atrial fibrillation (present vs absent) 0.601 (0.154) <0.001 HbA1c (per 1% increase) 0.099 (0.027) <0.001 Log of urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (per 1 log mg/g increase) 0.193 (0.033) <0.001 Non-HDL cholesterol (per 1 mmol/l increase) 0.126 (0.034) <0.001 Treated hypertension (yes vs no) 0.242 (0.106) 0.022
• Consider for example, a man diagnosed with diabetes at the age of 50, with a known duration of diabetes of 3 years, a pulse pressure of 50 mm Hg and treated for hypertension, a urinary albumin/creatinine ratio of 50 mg/g, an HbA1c of 7%, a non-HDL cholesterol of 3.3 mmol/litre, who has retinopathy and atrial fibrillation. The estimated risk based on the ADVANCE model is:

• * Mutually adjusted. Baseline survival probability at 4 years S0(4) =0.951044. Based on the Cox model, the probability of an event at t years of follow-up is defined by the following formula: , where S0(t) is the baseline survival at t years; βi is the estimated regression coefficient, Xi is the value of the predictor; is the corresponding mean for continuous predictors or proportion for categorical predictors (to account for the fact that the value of S0(t) is estimated at the mean level of predictors in the study population); and p denotes the number of predictors.

• HbA1c, haemoglobin A1c; HDL, high-density lipoprotein.