Parameter | Value (95% CI) | Source | Comments/distribution |
---|---|---|---|
Transition probabilities | |||
Patients with CHD | |||
Probability of 1st cardiovascular event (TP) | Risk equation 1 | EUROPA14 | Multivariate normal |
Probability of 1st cardiovascular event (FN) | Risk equation 1 | EUROPA14 | Multivariate normal |
Probability cardiovascular event is fatal | Risk equation 2 | EUROPA14 | Multivariate normal |
Probability of another cardiovascular event within 12 months of previous event | Risk equation 3 | EUROPA14 | Multivariate normal |
Probability of another cardiovascular event at least 12 months postprevious event | Risk equation 4 | EUROPA14 | Multivariate normal |
Proportion of FN patients identified within 12 months with CCS grade 2 (base case) | 0.5759 (0.436 to 0.704) | Expert clinical experts | β-Distribution |
Proportion of FN patients identified within 12 months with CCS grade 4 | 0.7392 (0.626 to 0.829) | Expert clinical experts | β-Distribution |
Probability of non-cardiovascular death | UK life tables | UK life tables18 | Fixed value |
Patients without CHD | |||
Probability of death | UK life tables | UK life tables18 | Fixed value |
Costs | |||
Patients with CHD | |||
Background costs per quarter (for base case patient) | £401 | EUROPA14 and PSSRU24 | Multivariate normal |
Additional background cost per quarter following previous non-fatal cardiovascular event | £251 | EUROPA14 and PSSRU24 | Multivariate normal |
Cost of non-fatal cardiovascular event | £12 001 | EUROPA14 and PSSRU24 | Multivariate normal |
Cost of fatal cardiovascular event | £3701 | EUROPA14 and PSSRU24 | Multivariate normal |
Cost of fatal non-cardiovascular event | £12 627 | EUROPA14 and PSSRU24 | Multivariate normal |
CCS, Canadian Cardiovascular Society; CHD, coronary heart disease; FN, false negative; TP, true positive.