Table 2

Parameters for Markov models

ParameterValue (95% CI)SourceComments/distribution
Transition probabilities
 Patients with CHD
  Probability of 1st cardiovascular event (TP)Risk equation 1EUROPA14Multivariate normal
  Probability of 1st cardiovascular event (FN)Risk equation 1EUROPA14Multivariate normal
  Probability cardiovascular event is fatalRisk equation 2EUROPA14Multivariate normal
  Probability of another cardiovascular event within 12 months of previous eventRisk equation 3EUROPA14Multivariate normal
  Probability of another cardiovascular event at least 12 months postprevious eventRisk equation 4EUROPA14Multivariate normal
  Proportion of FN patients identified within 12 months with CCS grade 2 (base case)0.5759 (0.436 to 0.704)Expert clinical expertsβ-Distribution
  Proportion of FN patients identified within 12 months with CCS grade 40.7392 (0.626 to 0.829)Expert clinical expertsβ-Distribution
  Probability of non-cardiovascular deathUK life tablesUK life tables18Fixed value
 Patients without CHD
  Probability of deathUK life tablesUK life tables18Fixed value
Costs
 Patients with CHD
  Background costs per quarter (for base case patient)£401EUROPA14 and PSSRU24Multivariate normal
  Additional background cost per quarter following previous non-fatal cardiovascular event£251EUROPA14 and PSSRU24Multivariate normal
  Cost of non-fatal cardiovascular event£12 001EUROPA14 and PSSRU24Multivariate normal
  Cost of fatal cardiovascular event£3701EUROPA14 and PSSRU24Multivariate normal
  Cost of fatal non-cardiovascular event£12 627EUROPA14 and PSSRU24Multivariate normal
  • CCS, Canadian Cardiovascular Society; CHD, coronary heart disease; FN, false negative; TP, true positive.