Table 3

Brier Score of the three clinical models and the three administrative models, for all cardiac surgery and for only isolated coronary artery bypass surgery

All cardiac surgeryIsolated CABG surgery
Brier scoresAdministrativeClinicalp Value differenceAdministrativeClinicalp Value difference
Original models2.9% (2.8–3.0)3.0% (2.8–3.2)0.0931.3% (1.2–1.5)1.4% (1.1–1.7)0.030
Updated models2.9% (2.7–3.1)2.7% (2.5–2.9)<0.0011.3% (1.1–1.4)1.2% (1.0–1.3)<0.001
Updated+interaction terms2.8% (2.6–3.0)2.6% (2.5–2.8)<0.0011.2% (1.1–1.4)1.2% (1.0–1.3)0.026
  • Brier scores range from 0 to a value depending on the prevalence of the outcome. The maximum Brier score that was possible in this data was 3.0% for all cardiac surgery and 1.3% for isolated CABG. A lower Brier score indicates better calibration. Brackets denote 95% CIs.

  • CABG: coronary artery bypass grafting.