Risk of total (fatal and non-fatal) and fatal CVD incidence by quintiles of chocolate intake in EPIC-Norfolk (1993–2008)
| Range (g/day) | Total | Quintile 1 0 | Quintile 2 0.6–3.5 | Quintile 3 4.1–7.0 | Quintile 4 7.2–15.5 | Quintile 5 15.6–98.8 | p Linearity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total CVD/n (%) | 3013/20 951 (14.4) | 729/4195 (17.4) | 693/4437 (15.6) | 528/4035 (13.1) | 563/4106 (13.7) | 500/4178 (12.0) | |
| Model 1 | 1.00 | 0.94 (0.85 to 1.05) | 0.94 (0.84 to 1.05) | 0.87 (0.78 to 0.98) | 0.84 (0.75 to 0.94) | 0.001 | |
| Model 2 | 1.00 | 0.98 (0.88 to 1.08) | 0.97 (0.87 to 1.09) | 0.90 (0.80 to 1.00) | 0.86 (0.76 to 0.97) | 0.006 | |
| Model 3 | 1.00 | 0.99 (0.89 to 1.10) | 0.99 (0.88 to 1.10) | 0.91 (0.81 to 1.02) | 0.89 (0.79 to 1.00) | 0.018 | |
| 2207/16 162 (13.7) | 548/3251 (16.9) | 512/3406 (15.0) | 375/3102 (12.1) | 422/3220 (13.1) | 350/3183 (11.0) | ||
| Model 4a | 1.00 | 1.00 (0.89 to 1.13) | 0.96 (0.84 to 1.09) | 0.90 (0.79 to 1.03) | 0.82 (0.72 to 0.95) | 0.003 | |
| Model 4b | 1.00 | 1.00 (0.88 to 1.12) | 0.95 (0.83 to 1.09) | 0.90 (0.79 to 1.02) | 0.82 (0.71 to 0.95) | 0.003 | |
| Fatal CVD/n (%) | 1107/20 951 (5.3) | 308/4195 (7.3) | 238/4437 (5.4) | 193/4035 (4.8) | 206/4106 (5.0) | 162/4178 (3.9) | |
| Model 1 | 1.00 | 0.77 (0.65 to 0.92) | 0.90 (0.75 to 1.07) | 0.78 (0.66 to 0.94) | 0.71 (0.59 to 0.86) | 0.001 | |
| Model 2 | 1.00 | 0.80 (0.68 to 0.95) | 0.94 (0.79 to 1.13) | 0.81 (0.67 to 0.97) | 0.73 (0.60 to 0.89) | 0.005 | |
| Model 3 | 1.00 | 0.82 (0.69 to 0.98) | 0.96 (0.80 to 1.15) | 0.82 (0.68 to 0.98) | 0.75 (0.62 to 0.92) | 0.011 | |
| 805/16 162 (5.0) | 231/3251 (7.1) | 174/3406 (5.1) | 133/3102 (4.3) | 154/3220 (4.8) | 113/3183 (3.6) | ||
| Model 4a | 1.00 | 0.82 (0.67 to 1.00) | 0.91 (0.73 to 1.13) | 0.81 (0.66 to 1.00) | 0.71 (0.56 to 0.89) | 0.008 | |
| Model 4b | 1.00 | 0.81 (0.66 to 0.99) | 0.90 (0.73 to 1.12) | 0.80 (0.65 to 0.99) | 0.70 (0.55 to 0.89) | 0.008 |
Model 1 adjusted for sex and age.
Model 2 adjusted for sex, age, smoking, physical activity, energy intake, and alcohol consumption.
Model 3: as model 2 and diabetes, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol.
Model 4a: as model 3, but restricted to number of participants for whom CRP is available (N=16 162).
Model 4b: as model 3 and CRP (N=16 162).
CRP, C-reactive protein; CVD, cardiovascular disease; EPIC, European Prospective Investigation into Cancer; HDL, high density lipoprotein; LDL, low density lipoprotein.