Table 2

Model results by risk group

Risk group (95% CI)Lowest risk23456789Highest risk
Model results split by 5-year risk of composite CVD event
 Life years26.81 (26.63 to 26.98)19.62 (19.48 to 19.80)17.34 (17.18 to 17.53)15.63 (15.47 to 15.84)14.26 (14.08 to 14.49)13.03 (12.83 to 13.28)11.92 (11.69 to 12.21)10.48 (10.21 to 10.84)8.52 (8.19 to 8.94)5.51 (5.09 to 6.02)
 Discounted life years*16.77 (16.69 to 16.85)13.66 (13.58 to 13.75)12.5 (12.41 to 12.61)11.56 (11.46 to 11.68)10.76 (10.65 to 10.89)9.99 (9.87 to 10.15)9.26 (9.11 to 9.44)8.27 (8.10 to 8.50)6.90 (6.67 to 7.17)4.67 (4.38 to 5.01)
 QALYs19.11 (18.06 to 19.93)13.97 (13.26 to 14.54)12.29 (11.66 to 12.80)11.01 (10.45 to 11.48)9.97 (9.44 to 10.41)9.03 (8.53 to 9.45)8.13 (7.65 to 8.53)6.99 (6.54 to 7.40)5.50 (5.09 to 5.89)3.34 (3.01 to 3.72)
 Discounted QALYs*12.04 (11.45 to 12.53)9.77 (9.31 to 10.17)8.9 (8.47 to 9.25)8.18 (7.78 to 8.51)7.55 (7.17 to 7.87)6.95 (6.58 to 7.25)6.34 (5.98 to 6.63)5.55 (5.21 to 5.84)4.47 (4.16 to 4.76)2.85 (2.60 to 3.13)
 Total costs (£,1000s)117 (65 to 168)81 (55 to 108)73 (54 to 92)68 (54 to 83)65 (53 to 76)62 (54 to 71)61 (55 to 69)59 (54 to 65)54 (49 to 60)43 (38 to 49)
 Discounted total costs (£,1000s)*62 (34 to 90)51 (34 to 67)48 (36 to 60)47 (37 to 56)45 (38 to 53)45 (39 to 51)45 (41 to 50)45 (41 to 49)42 (39 to 46)36 (32 to 40)
 CVD costs (£,1000s)72 (29 to 114)52 (30 to 74)48 (31 to 64)45 (33 to 58)43 (34 to 53)42 (35 to 50)42 (36 to 48)41 (37 to 46)38 (34 to 43)31 (27 to 35)
 Discounted CVD costs (£,1000s)*38 (15 to 60)32 (19 to 46)31 (21 to 41)31 (23 to 39)31 (24 to 37)31 (26 to 36)31 (27 to 35)31 (28 to 34)30 (27 to 33)26 (23 to 29)
 Time to first event (years)24.55 (24.31 to 24.76)17.80 (17.64 to 17.95)15.62 (15.47 to 15.75)13.98 (13.85 to 14.11)12.67 (12.54 to 12.8)11.49 (11.36 to 11.62)10.43 (10.29 to 10.57)9.00 (8.85 to 9.15)7.06 (6.91 to 7.22)4.07 (3.90 to 4.23)
 MI as primary endpoint (%)6.00 (5.55 to 6.49)7.11 (6.73 to 7.49)8.06 (7.72 to 8.43)8.94 (8.61 to 9.29)9.84 (9.50 to 10.15)10.70 (10.39 to 11.01)11.59 (11.28 to 11.90)12.33 (12.01 to 12.64)12.89 (12.57 to 13.22)14.3 (13.87 to 14.73)
 Ischaemic stroke as primary endpoint (%)5.51 (5.01 to 6.06)5.70 (5.34 to 6.11)6.06 (5.73 to 6.43)6.39 (6.07 to 6.74)6.80 (6.48 to 7.11)7.37 (7.05 to 7.68)8.29 (7.95 to 8.63)9.31 (8.96 to 9.68)10.07 (9.72 to 10.43)9.97 (9.58 to 10.38)
 Haemorrhagic stroke as primary endpoint (%)0.67 (0.48 to 0.89)0.67 (0.54 to 0.81)0.71 (0.59 to 0.82)0.72 (0.62 to 0.84)0.74 (0.65 to 0.84)0.76 (0.67 to 0.86)0.79 (0.70 to 0.89)0.78 (0.69 to 0.88)0.7 (0.61 to 0.81)0.48 (0.40 to 0.57)
 CVD mortality (%)4.48 (3.45 to 5.55)6.60 (5.45 to 7.51)8.52 (7.22 to 9.47)10.39 (8.97 to 11.44)12.63 (11.07 to 13.85)15.48 (13.78 to 17.07)20.17 (18.17 to 22.63)26.29 (23.61 to 30.18)34.46 (30.65 to 39.32)45.95 (41.34 to 50.07)
 Non-CVD mortality (%)95.46 (94.40 to 96.49)93.40 (92.49 to 94.55)91.48 (90.53 to 92.78)89.60 (88.56 to 91.03)87.37 (86.15 to 88.93)84.52 (82.93 to 86.22)79.83 (77.37 to 81.83)73.71 (69.82 to 76.39)65.54 (60.68 to 69.35)54.05 (49.93 to 58.66)
  • *Discounted figures presented in this table are discounted at 3.5% per annum.

  • CVD, cardiovascular disease; MI, myocardial infarction; QALYs, quality-adjusted life years.