Table 1

Performance of a clinical decision rule where those with a 10% or greater 10-year cardiovascular risk are considered positive for CVD (ie, at a high enough risk to require treatment, such as with statins): Glaswegian women in SHHEC

Clinical decision ruleCVDNo CVDTotal
Treat (risk ≥10%)124 (62%)584708
Do not treat (risk <10%)761517 (72%)1593
  • Risk was estimated from a logistic regression model, including age, systolic blood pressure, total and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, diabetes and smoking status.

  • Sensitivity (true positive frequency)=124/200=0.620% or 62.0%.

  • Specificity (true negative frequency)=1517/2101=0.722% or 72.2%.

  • Note: This ignores censoring and bias from self-testing.

  • CVD, cardiovascular disease; SHHEC, Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort.