Population health outcomes in 10 000 individuals
| Scenarios ranked according to increasing costs | No. of NHS health checks performed (95% CI) | No. of primary care risk assessments performed (95% CI) | No. of individuals selected for antihypertensives (95% CI) | No. of individuals selected for statins (95% CI) | No. of individuals with incident CVD (95% CI) | No. of incident diabetes mellitus (95% CI) | Average life expectancy (years, undiscounted) (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current practice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3401 (3305 to 3490) | 2249 (2168 to 2327) | 28.70 (28.47 to 28.99) |
| Cardiovascular risk assessment scenarios | |||||||
| Old guidelines | 13 665 (13 306 to 13 992) | 10 552 (10 014 to 11 103) | 2761 (2688 to 2840) | 3822 (3721 to 3912) | 3144 (3040 to 3257) | 2304 (2200 to 2410) | 28.81 (28.57 to 29.08) |
| Current guidelines | 11 596 (11 266 to 11 865) | 16 320 (15 637 to 17 119) | 3263 (3180 to 3349) | 5128 (5033 to 5218) | 3082 (2976 to 3203) | 2320 (2209 to 2434) | 28.83 (28.60 to 29.10) |
| Alternative guidelines | 11 596 (11 266 to 11 865) | 16 066 (15 347 to 16 919) | 3994 (3901 to 4082) | 5129 (5033 to 5218) | 3069 (2959 to 3193) | 2332 (2208 to 2464) | 28.84 (28.61 to 29.10) |
| Polypill scenarios | |||||||
| Polypill age 60+ | 0 | 0 | 4593 (4491 to 4677) | 4593 (4491 to 4677) | 2897 (2767 to 3037) | 2283 (2123 to 2482) | 28.91 (28.68 to 29.18) |
| Polypill age 55+ | 0 | 0 | 4712 (4604 to 4807) | 4712 (4604 to 4807) | 2877 (2742 to 3021) | 2286 (2115 to 2492) | 28.92 (28.69 to 29.19) |
| Polypill age 50+ | 0 | 0 | 4769 (4658 to 4860) | 4769 (4658 to 4860) | 2868 (2734 to 3014) | 2288 (2111 to 2503) | 28.93 (28.70 to 29.20) |
| Polypill age 45+ | 0 | 0 | 4787 (4687 to 4897) | 4787 (4687 to 4897) | 2865 (2732 to 3013) | 2289 (2109 to 2506) | 28.93 (28.71 to 29.20) |
| Polypill age 40+ | 0 | 0 | 4792 (4682 to 4882) | 4792 (4682 to 4882) | 2865 (2732 to 3013) | 2289 (2108 to 2506) | 28.93 (28.70 to 29.20) |
Numbers are provided from the base-case analysis with 95% CI from the probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
CI, credible interval; CVD, cardiovascular disease; NHS, National Health Service.