Input parameters for Markov model
| Expected (mean) value | Probability distribution around the mean | |
| Cohort size | 50 000 | - |
| Patient characteristics | ||
| Gender: male | 82% | β (516, 116) |
| Age | ||
| Male | 58 | Normal (58, 0.40) |
| Female | 57 | Normal (57, 0.88) |
| Quality of life | ||
| History of CHD | 0.74 | β (18 479, 6469) |
| MI | 0.67 | β (144, 71) |
| History of MI | 0.74 | β (18 479, 6469) |
| Stroke | 0.62 | β (159, 101) |
| History of stroke | 0.68 | β (115, 71) |
| Costs | ||
| Primary care costs* | 2,095 | γ (147, 14) |
| Cost per MI* | 11 877 | γ (400, 30) |
| Cost per stroke* | 18 801 | γ (400, 47) |
| Intervention effects | ||
| Change in SBP (mm Hg)† | ||
| Male | −7.7 | Normal (−7.7, 1.3) |
| Female | −8.2 | Normal (−8.1, 2.5) |
| Change in LDL-C (mmol/L)† | ||
| Male | −0.1 | Normal (−0.1, 0.1) |
| Female | −0.1 | Normal (−0.1, 0.1) |
| Change in proportion of cohort smoking‡ | ||
| Male | −15% | Normal (−15%, 0.04) |
| Female | −26% | Normal (−26%, 0.07) |
| Intervention cost | ||
| Database/IT infrastructure | 75 000 | |
| Project manager | 130 000 | |
| Clinical advisor | 26 000 | |
| Patient enrolment | 846 354 | |
| Messages | 480 000 | |
| Additional (miscellaneous expenses) | 100 000 | |
| Total cost | 1 657 354 | U (1 243 016, 2 071 693) |
*For 55–64 male, for full primary care and hospital costs, see Appendix.
†Analysis of covariance was used and included randomised groups (usual care and TEXT ME) and baseline values.
‡Test of proportions. For probability distributions around the mean, the first and second values in parentheses correspond to mean and SE in normal distribution and alpha and beta in beta (β), gamma (γ) and uniform (U) distributions.
CHD, coronary heart disease; LDL-C, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; MI, myocardial infarction; SBP, systolic blood pressure; TEXT ME, Tobacco, Exercise and Diet Messages.