Abstract 89 Table 2

Model performance statistics

Model

Discrimination (c-statistic)

Calibration in the large (alpha)

Logistic miscalibration (beta)

Development population

Duke model (1993)

0.763 (0.725–0.800)

−1.108 (-1.305, 0.911); p<0.001

−0.298 (-0.416,–0.180); p<0.001

Genders et al (2012) Basic

0.770 (0.733–0.806)

0.713 (0.532, 0.893); p<0.001

−0.015 (-0.131, 0.101); p=0.803

Genders et al (2012) Clinical

0.762 (0.725–0.7995)

0.822 (0.639, 1.005); p<0.001

−0.051 (-0.159, 0.057); p=0.354

Validation population

CEMARC

0.777 (0.731–0.824)

0.045 (-0.190, 0.280); p=0.709

0.028 (-0.214, 0.269); p=0.823

Pryor et al (1993)

0.752 (0.704–0.801)

−1.016 (-1.265,–0.766); p<0.001

−0.207 (-0.363,–0.050); p=0.010

Genders et al (2012) Basic

0.755 (0.706–0.803)

0.738 (0.507, 0.969); p<0.001

−0.007 (-0.182, 0.169); p=0.940

Genders et al (2012) Clinical

0.752 (0.703–0.800)

0.866 (0.629, 1.103); p<0.001

−0.054 (-0.121, 0.105); p=0.507