Table 1

Multivariate risk equations in the SHARP CKD-CVD lifetime outcomes model

Covariates*CategoryCVD submodel†CKD submodelProbability of kidney transplant among those on dialysis in previous year
Vascular deathMAE or vascular deathMVE or vascular deathFrom any pre-RRT stage‡
CKD stage 3B versus
CKD stage 4
CKD stage 5, not RRT versus
CKD stage 4
Renal transplant versus
CKD stage 4
Dialysis versus
CKD stage 4
Exponential PH
HR (95% CI)
Gompertz PH
HR (95% CI)
Gompertz PH
HR (95% CI)
Multinomial logistic regression RRR2 (95% CI)Logistic regression
OR (95% CI)
Patient’s characteristics at baseline
Sociodemographic characteristics
SexMale1.3 (1.1 to 1.6)1.4 (1.2 to 1.5)1.4 (1.2 to 1.5)1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)1.1 (1.0 to 1.2)1.2 (0.9 to 1.7)1.5 (1.3 to 1.7)1.2 (1.0 to 1.4)
Ethnicity/country
(ref: white)
Asian (China)3.5 (2.4 to 5.0)1.3 (1.0 to 1.7)1.4 (1.1 to 1.8)1.5 (1.2 to 1.9)2.1 (1.7 to 2.7)0.6 (0.2 to 1.9)1.6 (1.2 to 2.2)0.3 (0.2 to 0.6)
Asian (other country)1.2 (0.9 to 1.5)0.7 (0.6 to 0.9)0.7 (0.6 to 0.9)0.9 (0.8 to 1.1)1.1 (0.9 to 1.2)0.1 (0.1 to 0.4)0.9 (0.7 to 1.1)0.1 (0.1 to 0.1)
Black0.9 (0.6 to 1.5)0.8 (0.6 to 1.1)0.9 (0.6 to 1.2)1.2 (0.9 to 1.7)1.1 (0.7 to 1.7)1.0 (0.2 to 4.4)1.9 (1.2 to 3.3)0.5 (0.4 to 0.8)
Other1.2 (0.8 to 1.8)0.7 (0.6 to 1.0)0.7 (0.6 to 1.0)1.0 (0.7 to 1.5)1.2 (0.9 to 1.7)2.7 (1.4 to 5.1)1.4 (0.9 to 2.1)0.6 (0.4 to 0.8)
Smoker
(ref: never)
Former1.0 (0.8 to 1.2)1.1 (1.0 to 1.2)1.1 (1.0 to 1.2)1.0 (0.8 to 1.1)
Current1.4 (1.1 to 1.7)1.4 (1.2 to 1.6)1.4 (1.2 to 1.6)0.7 (0.6 to 0.9)
Adult dependants
(ref: yes)
No0.7 (0.6 to 0.8)
Missing0.8 (0.6 to 1.0)
Education level
(ref: A-levels or above)
GCSE/vocational1.0 (0.9 to 1.2)1.1 (0.9 to 1.2)0.7 (0.5 to 1.0)1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)0.6 (0.5 to 0.8)
Below secondary1.0 (0.9 to 1.2)0.8 (0.7 to 1.0)0.4 (0.2 to 0.7)0.9 (0.7 to 1.0)0.8 (0.6 to 1.0)
1.0 (0.8 to 1.1)1.1 (0.9 to 1.3)0.8 (0.5 to 1.2)1.1 (0.9 to 1.3)1.0 (0.8 to 1.2)
BMI, kg/m2
(ref: ≥25, <30)
<251.0 (0.9 to 1.2)
≥300.7 (0.6 to 0.9)
Disease history, laboratory measurements and other risk factors
DiabetesYes1.4 (1.1 to 1.8)1.4 (1.2 to 1.7)1.4 (1.2 to 1.6)1.0 (0.8 to 1.2)0.9 (0.7 to 1.0)0.2 (0.1 to 1.0)1.2 (0.9 to 1.5)0.6 (0.4 to 0.9)
Previous failed kidney transplantYes0.5 (0.4 to 0.7)
Diastolic blood pressure, mm Hg (ref: ≥75, <85)<750.8 (0.6 to 0.9)
≥851.1 (0.9 to 1.3)
Systolic blood pressure, mm Hg (ref: ≥130, <150)<1301.2 (1.0 to 1.4)1.0 (0.9 to 1.2)1.0 (0.9 to 1.2)1.0 (0.9 to 1.2)
≥1501.3 (1.1 to 1.6)1.2 (1.1 to 1.3)1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)0.8 (0.6 to 0.9)
Albumin, g/dL
(ref ≥3.9, <4.2)
<3.91.3 (1.1 to 1.5)1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)0.9 (0.8 to 1.0)1.1 (1.0 to 1.3)1.4 (0.9 to 2.2)1.4 (1.2 to 1.7)
≥4.20.8 (0.6 to 0.9)0.9 (0.8 to 1.0)0.9 (0.8 to 1.0)1.0 (0.9 to 1.1)1.0 (0.9 to 1.1)1.1 (0.7 to 1.5)0.9 (0.8 to 1.1)
Missing1.1 (0.8 to 1.5)1.1 (0.9 to 1.3)1.1 (0.9 to 1.3)0.7 (0.6 to 0.9)1.1 (0.9 to 1.3)1.5 (0.8 to 2.8)1.4 (1.1 to 1.8)
Haemoglobin, g/dL
(ref: ≥11.6, <13)
<11.61.5 (1.2 to 1.8)1.3 (1.1 to 1.4)1.3 (1.1 to 1.4)1.0 (0.9 to 1.2)1.2 (1.0 to 1.3)1.0 (0.7 to 1.5)1.3 (1.1 to 1.6)
≥130.9 (0.7 to 1.2)1.0 (0.9 to 1.2)1.0 (0.9 to 1.1)1.3 (1.2 to 1.5)0.8 (0.7 to 0.9)0.6 (0.4 to 0.8)0.7 (0.6 to 0.8)
Missing1.0 (0.7 to 1.5)1.1 (0.9 to 1.4)1.1 (0.9 to 1.4)1.1 (0.9 to 1.3)1.0 (0.8 to 1.3)1.0 (0.4 to 2.9)1.1 (0.8 to 1.6)
Phosphate, mmol/L
(ref: ≥1.2, <1.5)
<1.21.3 (1.1 to 1.4)0.7 (0.6 to 0.7)0.9 (0.6 to 1.3)0.6 (0.5 to 0.8)
≥1.50.8 (0.6 to 1.0)1.4 (1.2 to 1.6)1.3 (0.9 to 1.9)1.7 (1.5 to 2.1)
Missing1.5 (1.3 to 1.8)0.7 (0.6 to 0.9)0.5 (0.2 to 1.0)0.9 (0.7 to 1.1)
Urinary ACR (measured in pre-RRT participants only), mg/g
(ref: <30)
≥30, ≤3001.0 (0.7 to 1.4)1.2 (1.0 to 1.5)1.2 (1.0 to 1.5)0.6 (0.5 to 0.7)1.7 (1.5 to 2.0)0.9 (0.5 to 1.5)1.7 (1.3 to 2.1)
>3001.3 (0.9 to 1.8)1.4 (1.1 to 1.7)1.4 (1.1 to 1.7)0.3 (0.3 to 0.4)3.0 (2.5 to 3.5)2.8 (1.7 to 4.8)4.9 (3.8 to 6.3)
Missing1.2 (0.8 to 1.9)1.0 (0.8 to 1.4)1.1 (0.8 to 1.4)0.9 (0.8 to 1.1)1.6 (1.3 to 2.0)1.1 (0.5 to 2.5)1.9 (1.4 to 2.7)
RRT1.2 (0.8 to 1.8)1.3 (1.0 to 1.8)1.4 (1.0 to 1.8)
HDL cholesterol, mmol/L
(ref: ≥0.9, <1.2)
<0.91.0 (0.9 to 1.1)1.1 (0.9 to 1.2)0.8 (0.5 to 1.2)1.1 (0.9 to 1.3)
≥1.21.1 (1.0 to 1.3)0.8 (0.7 to 0.9)0.9 (0.6 to 1.3)0.9 (0.8 to 1.1)
Cause of kidney disease
(ref: other/unknown)
Diabetic nephropathy1.3 (1.0 to 1.7)1.4 (1.2 to 1.6)1.4 (1.2 to 1.6)0.8 (0.7 to 1.0)0.9 (0.7 to 1.1)2.1 (0.4 to 10.6)1.1 (0.8 to 1.5)0.8 (0.5 to 1.3)
Cystic kidney disease0.8 (0.5 to 1.0)0.9 (0.7 to 1.0)0.9 (0.7 to 1.1)0.3 (0.3 to 0.4)2.6 (2.3 to 3.0)4.9 (3.5 to 6.9)4.9 (4.1 to 5.9)1.6 (1.3 to 1.8)
Characteristics updated on an annual basis
AgePer 10 years older1.6 (1.5 to 1.7)1.4 (1.4 to 1.5)1.4 (1.3 to 1.5)0.8 (0.8 to 0.9)0.9 (0.9 to 1.0)0.4 (0.4 to 0.5)0.8 (0.7 to 0.8)0.6 (0.6 to 0.6)
Time since CKD diagnosisPer 10 years1.0 (0.9 to 1.0)1.1 (1.0 to 1.1)1.2 (1.1 to 1.3)1.1 (1.0 to 1.1)
Previous (most recent) CVD event
(ref: no MVE within trial, no baseline vascular disease)
No MVE within trial, with baseline vascular disease1.7 (1.4 to 2.1)1.9 (1.7 to 2.2)1.9 (1.7 to 2.2)1.0 (0.9 to 1.2)1.0 (0.9 to 1.2)0.6 (0.3 to 1.2)1.0 (0.8 to 1.2)0.7 (0.5 to 0.9)
MAE within trial, last year3.0 (2.2 to 4.0)4.3 (3.6 to 5.2)4.3 (3.5 to 5.1)NANA
MAE within trial,
1–2 years ago
2.6 (1.7 to 3.9)3.5 (2.7 to 4.6)3.5 (2.7 to 4.5)
MAE within trial,
>2 years ago
1.5 (0.9 to 2.7)2.3 (1.6 to 3.3)2.3 (1.6 to 3.2)
No MAE, but MVE within trial4.6 (1.7 to 12.5)3.4 (1.4 to 8.2)4.3 (1.8 to 10.0)
MVE within trial§NA0.9 (0.7 to 1.2)1.6 (1.2 to 2.1)1.3 (0.3 to 5.1)3.0 (2.1 to 4.2)0.9 (0.7 to 1.3)
CKD status at the end of the previous cycle
(ref: CKD stage 3B)
CKD stage 41.7 (1.3 to 2.3)1.3 (1.1 to 1.5)1.3 (1.1 to 1.5)0.02 (0.02 to 0.02)10.8 (6.8 to 17.0)6.5 (0.9 to 48.2)2.6 (1.6 to 4.0)NA
CKD stage 5, not on RRT2.2 (1.6 to 3.1)1.6 (1.3 to 2.0)1.6 (1.3 to 1.9)0.01
(0.01 to 0.02)
737.1
(455.7 to 1192.4)
1279.5
(174.2 to 9397.7)
369.4
(233.5 to 584.3)
On dialysis, RRT≤3 years2.8 (2.0 to 4.0)2.1 (1.7 to 2.7)2.1 (1.7 to 2.6)NA
On dialysis, RRT>3 years4.1 (2.7 to 6.1)2.5 (1.9 to 3.3)2.5 (1.9 to 3.3)1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)¶
Functioning kidney transplant0.9 (0.4 to 2.0)0.7 (0.5 to 1.2)0.8 (0.5 to 1.2)NA
Intercept**−14.8
(−15.5 to -14.1)
−12.4
(−12.8 to -12.0)
−12.4
(−12.8 to -11.9)
9.3
(6.6 to 13.0)
0.0
(0.0 to 0.0)
0.1
(0.0 to 0.5)
0.0
(0.0 to 0.0)
3.0 (1.9 to 5.0)
Ancillary parameter
(on the original scale)
NA−0.0002
(−0.0003,
−0.0001)
−0.0002
(−0.0003,
−0.0001)
NANA
  • *Missing data were either assigned into a separate category or, if data were missing for fewer than 5% of participants, to the middle group (online supplementary item S1 and table SM1), †Each risk equation included an adjustment for use of lipid-lowering therapy, ‡The coefficients represent the RRR for being in the respective CKD category versus the comparator category (CKD stage 4) per unit change in the covariate. For example, the RR of being in stage 3B relative to being in stage 4 in males is 1.2 times higher than in females. To calculate RR relative to another stage category, the corresponding RRRs need to be divided. For example, the RR of being on kidney transplant relative to being in CKD stage 5 in males is 1.2 (=1.3/1.1) times higher in males than in females; years in which deaths occurred were excluded from modelling, §In the CKD risk equations, all within-trial major vascular events were combined into one category, ¶Reference category is ‘on dialysis’, RRT≤3 years, **Intercept in the CVD submodel is presented on the original scale.

  • ACR, albumin:creatinine ratio; BMI, body mass index; CKD, chronic kidney disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; MAE, major atherosclerotic event; MVE, major vascular event; NA, not applicable: covariate not included or specified through other covariates within category; PH, proportional hazards; RRR, relative risk ratio; RRT, renal replacement therapy.