Temporal changes in resting heart rate (RHR) and all-cause mortality in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (n=21 692)
| All-cause mortality | Deaths (n) | % | Person-years | Age-adjusted and sex-adjusted | Multivariable analysis* | Multivariable analysis*† | ||||||
| HR | 95% CI | P | HR | 95% CI | P | HR | 95% CI | P | ||||
| Change in RHR (bpm) | ||||||||||||
| Very large decrease (<−25) | 60 | 2.1 | 3226 | 1.47 | 1.14 to 1.91 | 0.003 | 1.05 | 0.79 to 1.39 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.74 to 1.36 | 0.99 |
| Large decrease (−16 to −25) | 228 | 8.1 | 16 915 | 1.23 | 1.06 to 1.42 | 0.005 | 1.01 | 0.86 to 1.17 | 0.93 | 1.03 | 0.88 to 1.20 | 0.74 |
| Moderate decrease (−6 to −15) | 812 | 28.8 | 70 487 | 1.11 | 1.02 to 1.22 | 0.022 | 1.04 | 0.94 to 1.14 | 0.43 | 1.04 | 0.94 to 1.15 | 0.41 |
| Stable RHR (−5 to +5) | 1035 | 36.7 | 92 139 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
| Moderate increase (6–15) | 523 | 18.6 | 34 149 | 1.17 | 1.05 to 1.30 | 0.004 | 1.18 | 1.06 to 1.31 | 0.003 | 1.17 | 1.05 to 1.31 | 0.004 |
| Large increase (16–25) | 109 | 3.9 | 5095 | 1.36 | 1.12 to 1.66 | 0.002 | 1.31 | 1.07 to 1.60 | 0.009 | 1.23 | 0.99 to 1.53 | 0.06 |
| Very large increase (>25) | 51 | 1.8 | 1360 | 1.93 | 1.46 to 2.56 | <0.001 | 1.90 | 1.43 to 2.52 | <0.001 | 1.85 | 1.38 to 2.50 | <0.001 |
| Clinical change in RHR | ||||||||||||
| Normal-normal | 1334 | 47.3 | 114 125 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||||
| High-normal | 555 | 19.7 | 40 074 | 1.19 | 1.08 to 1.31 | 0.001 | 1.04 | 0.91 to 1.19 | 0.55 | 1.03 | 0.89 to 1.18 | 0.69 |
| High-high | 570 | 20.2 | 20 564 | 1.39 | 1.26 to 1.53 | <0.001 | 1.16 | 1.00 to 1.34 | 0.05 | 1.14 | 0.98 to 1.33 | 0.09 |
| Normal-high | 359 | 12.7 | 48 609 | 1.32 | 1.18 to 1.49 | <0.001 | 1.24 | 1.10 to 1.40 | <0.001 | 1.23 | 1.09 to 1.39 | 0.001 |
*Adjusted for age, sex, country of birth, level of education, waist circumference (baseline and wave 2), baseline RHR, alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity score, Alternative Healthy Eating Index, total serum cholesterol, sodium:potassium ratio, caffeine, blood pressure, hypertension, angina, asthma and diabetes. Adjusting the models for change in waist circumference instead of wave 2 circumference resulted in virtually unchanged estimates.
†Multivariable analysis excluding the first 2 years of follow-up following wave 2.
bpm, beats per minute; normal resting heart rate (RHR), <70 bpm; high RHR: ≥70 bpm.