Temporal changes in RHR and cause-specific mortality in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (n=21 692)
| Deaths (n) | % | Person-years | HR* | 95% CI | P | |
| All-cancer mortality | ||||||
| Change in RHR (bpm) | ||||||
| Very large decrease (<−25) | 14 | 1.5 | 2773 | 0.77 | 0.44 to 1.36 | 0.37 |
| Large decrease (−16 to −25) | 57 | 6.0 | 14 498 | 0.74 | 0.55 to 0.99 | 0.04 |
| Moderate decrease (−6 to −15) | 284 | 29.9 | 60 294 | 1.02 | 0.87 to 1.20 | 0.79 |
| Stable RHR (−5 to +5) | 364 | 38.4 | 78 873 | 1.00 | ||
| Moderate increase (6–15) | 182 | 19.2 | 29 387 | 1.22 | 1.02 to 1.47 | 0.03 |
| Large increase (16–25) | 34 | 3.6 | 4392 | 1.21 | 0.84 to 1.74 | 0.31 |
| Very large increase (>25) | 14 | 1.5 | 1196 | 1.66 | 0.97 to 2.85 | 0.06 |
| P trend | 0.08 | |||||
| CVD mortality | ||||||
| Change in RHR (bpm) | ||||||
| Very large decrease (<−25) | 17 | 3.0 | 2773 | 1.33 | 0.76 to 2.31 | 0.31 |
| Large decrease (−16 to −25) | 52 | 9.2 | 14 498 | 1.12 | 0.81 to 1.57 | 0.49 |
| Moderate decrease (−6 to −15) | 159 | 28.2 | 60 294 | 1.07 | 0.86 to 1.33 | 0.53 |
| Stable RHR (−5 to +5) | 196 | 34.8 | 78 873 | 1.00 | ||
| Moderate increase (6–15) | 105 | 18.6 | 29 387 | 1.19 | 0.93 to 1.51 | 0.17 |
| Large increase (16–25) | 22 | 3.9 | 4392 | 1.32 | 0.85 to 2.07 | 0.22 |
| Very large increase (>25) | 13 | 2.3 | 1196 | 2.25 | 1.27 to 3.98 | 0.005 |
| P trend | 0.44 | |||||
| Other-cause mortality | ||||||
| Change in RHR (bpm) | ||||||
| Very large decrease (<−25) | 13 | 2.1 | 2773 | 1.06 | 0.58 to 1.94 | 0.86 |
| Large decrease (−16 to −25) | 58 | 9.2 | 14 498 | 1.20 | 0.88 to 1.65 | 0.25 |
| Moderate decrease (−6 to −15) | 173 | 27.3 | 60 294 | 1.07 | 0.87 to 1.31 | 0.52 |
| Stable RHR (−5 to +5) | 214 | 33.8 | 78 873 | 1.00 | ||
| Moderate increase (6–15) | 132 | 20.9 | 29 387 | 1.39 | 1.12 to 1.74 | 0.003 |
| Large increase (16–25) | 28 | 4.4 | 4392 | 1.57 | 1.06 to 2.34 | 0.03 |
| Very large increase (>25) | 15 | 2.4 | 1196 | 2.41 | 1.41 to 4.10 | 0.001 |
| P trend | 0.28 | |||||
*Adjusted for age, sex, country of birth, level of education, waist circumference (baseline and wave 2), baseline RHR, alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity score, Alternative Healthy Eating Index, total serum cholesterol, sodium:potassium ratio, caffeine, blood pressure, hypertension, angina, asthma and diabetes. Adjusting the models for change in waist circumference instead of wave 2 circumference resulted in virtually unchanged estimates.
bpm, beats per minute; CVD, cardiovascular disease; RHR, resting heart rate.