Incremental predictive value of BNP values over pre-existing risk scores
| Outcome | Model | C-index (95% CI) | McFadden’s pseudo-R2 |
| AF progression | BNP only | 0.6176 (0.5802 to 0.6550) | 0.0203 |
| AF progression model† | 0.7083 (0.6731 to 0.7435) | 0.0729 | |
| AF progression model+BNP† | 0.7154 (0.6800 to 0.7507) | 0.0798 | |
| HATCH score | 0.5826 (0.5438 to 0.6214) | 0.0097 | |
| HATCH score+BNP | 0.6315 (0.5945 to 0.6684) | 0.0241 | |
| MACNE∗ | BNP only | 0.6110 (0.5727 to 0.6493) | 0.0088 |
| MACNE model‡ | 0.7408 (0.7090 to 0.7725) | 0.0464 | |
| MACNE model+BNP‡ | 0.7771 (0.7125 to 0.7757) | 0.0477 | |
| CHA2DS2-VASc score | 0.6041 (0.5671 to 0.6411) | 0.0068 | |
| CHA2DS2-VASc score+BNP | 0.6318 (0.5940 to 0.6696) | 0.0127 |
*Log-transformed BNP was included in the model for MACNE.
†Covariates in AF progression model are listed in online supplementary eAppendix 1.
‡Covariates in MACNE model are listed in online supplementary eAppendix 2.
AF, atrial fibrillation; BNP, B-type natriuretic peptide; MACNE, major adverse cardiovascular or neurological event.