Table 3

Base-case cost-effectiveness results

Mean cost per patientMean QALY per patientICERIncremental mean net health benefit per patient* (95% CI)
(95% CI)(95% CI)k=£15 000k=£20 000k=£30 000
(P (most costly))(P (most effective))(probability of being cost-effective)
Low PTL
NICE£787.922.20095
(531.64 to 1046.85)(2.05635 to 2.36087)
(0.047)(0.130)(0.160)(0.153)(0.147)
CMR£846.002.28702£674.830.0820.0830.084
(597.5 to 1098.28)(2.19106 to 2.38562)(−0.096 to 0.257)(−0.093 to 0.258)(−0.091 to 0.259)
(0.083)(0.719)(0.736)(0.729)(0.722)
MPS£1061.942.22261Dominated0.0030.0080.013
(835.89 to 1293.69)(2.13167 to 2.3122)(−0.173 to 0.171)(−0.166 to 0.173)(−0.161 to 0.177)
(0.870)(0.151)(0.104)(0.118)(0.131)
Medium PTL
CMR£1301.972.197380.2200.2160.211
(1056.23 to 1560.61)(2.09621 to 2.29582)(0.047 to 0.398)(0.041 to 0.393)(0.036 to 0.388)
(0.074)(0.642)(0.688)(0.682)(0.671)
MPS£1391.202.17327Dominated0.190.1870.184
(1105.68 to 1684.8)(2.0717 to 2.26984)(0.023 to 0.36)(0.021 to 0.355)(0.018 to 0.355)
(0.211)(0.353)(0.310)(0.316)(0.326)
NICE£1565.281.99474Dominated
(1114.65 to 1991.53)(1.85789 to 2.12644)
(0.715)(0.005)(0.002)(0.002)(0.003)
High PTL
CMR£2514.862.155910.1150.1130.111
(2058.12 to 2936.73)(2.06893 to 2.24084)(−0.18 to 0.406)(−0.185 to 0.401)(−0.186 to 0.395)
(0.184)(0.747)(0.758)(0.755)(0.750)
NICE£2638.372.04944Dominated
(2048.84 to 3213.82)(1.78434 to 2.3057)
(0.400)(0.213)(0.204)(0.207)(0.211)
MPS£2660.931.97525Dominated−0.076−0.075−0.075
(2154.92 to 3139.48)(1.76637 to 2.18188)(−0.368 to 0.213)(−0.361 to 0.212)(−0.358 to 0.213)
(0.416)(0.040)(0.038)(0.038)(0.039)
Overall
CMR£1624.822.205680.1460.1440.141
(1431.4 to 1824.44)(2.14564 to 2.26468)(−0.013 to 0.306)(−0.013 to 0.302)(−0.013 to 0.302)
(0.073)(0.917)(0.931)(0.926)(0.925)
NICE£1753.242.06854Dominated
(1473.15 to 2031.75)(1.92352 to 2.20276)
(0.440)(0.035)(0.029)(0.032)(0.031)
MPS£1767.872.11400Dominated0.0440.0450.045
(1571.78 to 1989.15)(2.01256 to 2.2169)(−0.103 to 0.189)(−0.101 to 0.187)(−0.1 to 0.187)
(0.487)(0.048)(0.040)(0.042)(0.044)
  • P (most costly): probability of a strategy being the most costly alternative.

  • P (most effective): probability of a strategy being the most effective alternative (ie, highest QALY gain).

  • *All incremental net health benefits are estimated compared with NICE-guided care.

  • CI, credible intervals; CMR, cardiovascular magnetic resonance; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; k, cost-effectiveness threshold; MPS, myocardial perfusion scintigraphy; NICE, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance; PTL, pretest likelihood; QALY, quality-adjusted life-years.