Table 4

Cumulative incidence of probable or definite aortic stenosis and death by sex and race

Incident cases*MenWomenNon-BlackBlack
10y15y20y10y15y20y10y15y20y10y15y20y
Clinically significant AS
Subdistrib cum inc, %1.72
(1.20 to 2.24)
2.60
(1.96 to 3.23)
3.32
(2.60 to 4.04)
1.02
(0.67 to 1.36)
2.00
(1.52 to 2.48)
2.56
(2.02 to 3.11)
1.41
(1.08 to 1.74)
2.41
(1.98 to 2.84)
3.10
(3.62 to 3.59)
0.68
(0.09 to 1.27)
1.23
(0.43 to 2.03)
1.37
(0.52 to 2.21)
Cause spec cum inc, %2.27
(1.57 to 2.97)
4.36
(3.23 to 5.48)
7.17
(5.43 to 8.92)
1.20
(0.79 to 1.61)
2.79
(2.10 to 3.47)
4.27
(3.31 to 5.23)
1.74
(1.32 to 2.14)
3.57
(2.92 to 4.22)
5.66
(4.71 to 6.61)
0.82
(0.10 to 1.53)
1.99
(0.64 to 3.34)
2.43
(0.83 to 4.03)
AS procedure
Subdistr cum inc, %1.13
(0.70 to 1.55)
1.46
(0.98 to 1.95)
1.68
(1.16 to 2.19)
0.58
(0.32 to 0.84)
1.01
(0.67 to 1.36)
1.11
(0.75 to 1.47)
0.88
(0.61 to 1.14)
1.32
(0.74 to 1.38)
1.47
(1.13 to 1.80)
0.41†
(0 to 0.87)
0.41†
(0 to 0.87)
0.55
(0.01 to 1.08)
Cause spec cum inc, %1.52
(0.94 to 2.10)
2.35
(1.54 to 3.17)
3.26
(2.11 to 4.42)
0.66
(0.36 to 0.96)
1.34
(0.88 to 1.81)
1.62
(1.06 to 2.19)
1.06
(0.74 to 1.38)
1.89
(1.42 to 2.36)
2.36
(1.77 to 2.94)
0.50†
(0 to 1.07)
0.50†
(0 to 1.07)
0.98
(0 to 2.07)
Hospitalisation for severe AS
Subdistr cum inc, %1.63
(1.12 to 2.14)
2.30
(1.70 to 2.90)
2.82
(2.15 to 3.48)
0.98
(0.64 to 1.32)
1.78
(1.33 to 2.24)
2.22
(1.71 to 2.73)
1.32
(1.00 to 1.64)
2.14
(1.73 to 2.54)
2.65
(2.20 to 3.10)
0.81
(0.17 to 1.47)
1.09
(0.34 to 1.84)
1.23
(0.43 to 2.02)
Cause spec cum inc, %2.24
(1.53 to 2.94)
3.83
(2.79 to 4.88)
6.03
(4.39 to 7.67)
1.13
(0.74 to 1.52)
2.42
(1.79 to 3.05)
3.60
(2.72 to 4.47)
1.63
(1.23 to 2.02)
3.13
(2.52 to 3.74)
4.74
(3.87 to 5.61)
1.01
(0.20 to 1.82)
1.61
(0.45 to 2.76)
2.02
(0.61 to 3.42)
Moderate or severe AS
Subdistr cum inc, %2.82
(2.15 to 3.48)
4.16
(3.36 to 4.97)
5.35
(4.44 to 6.25)
1.73
(1.28 to 2.18)
3.18
(2.58 to 3.79)
4.25
(3.55 to 4.94)
2.31
(1.89 to 2.73)
3.79
(3.25 to 4.32)
5.00
(4.39 to 5.62)
1.36
(0.52 to 2.21)
2.32
(1.23 to 3.42)
2.74
(1.55 to 3.92)
Cause spec cum inc, %3.67
(2.79 to 4.54)
6.72
(5.37 to 8.07)
11.13
(9.06 to 13.21)
2.01
(1.48 to 2.53)
4.38
(3.53 to 5.22)
7.21
(5.95 to 8.47)
2.79
(2.28 to 3.30)
5.49
(4.70 to 6.29)
9.10
(7.91 to 10.3)
1.75
(0.66 to 2.84)
3.61
(1.87 to 5.36)
4.78
(2.61 to 6.95)
Death
Cum inc, %44.71
(42.73 to 46.68)
67.14
(65.28 to 69.01)
83.96
(82.50 to 85.43)
28.98
(27.44 to 30.52)
52.81
(51.12 to 54.41)
72.24
(70.72 to 73.77)
34.59
(33.27 to 35.92)
57.93
(56.55 to 59.31)
76.46
(75.28 to 77.64)
41.74
(38.38 to 45.10)
64.42
(61.15 to 67.68)
82.0
(79.08 to 84.92)
  • *Values in parentheses are 95% CIs.

  • †Identical estimates reflect lack of additional incident events during the longer study interval.

  • AS, aortic stenosis; Cum inc, cumulative incidence; Caus spec, cause specific; Subdistr, subdistribution; y, years.