Table 3

Cumulative incidence of probable or definite aortic stenosis and death, overall and by age categories

Incident cases*OverallAge <75yAge 75–84yAge ≥85y
10y15y20y10y15y20y10y15y20y10y15y20y
Clinically significant AS
Subdistr cum inc, %1.31
(1.01 to 1.61)
2.25
(1.87 to 2.64)
2.88
(2.44 to 3.32)
1.03
(0.70 to 1.35)
1.98
(1.53 to 2.43)
2.77
(2.24 to 3.30)
1.79
(1.17 to 2.42)
2.83
(2.05 to 3.62)
3.19
(2.36 to 4.02)
2.31†
(0.30 to 4.33)
2.31†
(0.30 to 4.33)
2.31†
(0.30 to 4.33)
Cause spec cum inc, %1.62
(1.25 to 1.99)
3.37
(2.78 to 3.97)
5.29
(4.42 to 6.16)
1.17
(0.80 to 1.54)
2.62
(2.02 to 3.23)
4.42
(3.54 to 5.30)
2.57
(1.66 to 3.49)
5.67
(3.96 to 7.37)
8.95
(5.71 to 12.19)
5.55†
(0.28 to 10.82)
5.55†
(0.28 to 10.82)
5.55†
(0.28 to 10.82)
AS procedure‡
Subdistr cum inc, %0.81
(0.58 to 1.05)
1.21
(0.92 to 1.49)
1.35
(1.05 to 1.65)
0.81
(0.52 to 1.10)
1.30
(0.93 to 1.66)
1.52
(1.13 to 1.92)
0.87
(0.43 to 1.30)
1.10
(0.61 to 1.59)
1.10
(0.61 to 1.59)
0.46†
(0 to 1.36)
0.46†
(0 to 1.36)
0.46†
(0 to 1.36)
Cause spec cum inc, %0.99
(0.70 to 1.28)
1.72
(1.30 to 2.14)
2.20
(1.66 to 2.74)
0.93
(0.59 to 1.26)
1.67
(1.20 to 2.15)
2.21
(1.60 to 2.82)
1.18
(0.57 to 1.78)
1.84
(0.94 to 2.73)
1.84
(0.94 to 2.73)
0.62†
(0 to 1.83)
0.62†
(0 to 1.83)
0.62†
(0 to 1.83)
Hospitalisation for severe AS
Subdistr cum inc, %1.26
(0.97 to 1.55)
2.00
(1.64 to 2.37)
2.47
(2.07 to 2.88)
1.00
(0.68 to 1.32)
1.73
(1.31 to 2.15)
2.36
(1.87 to 2.85)
1.68
(1.07 to 2.28)
2.54
(1.80 to 3.28)
2.73
(1.96 to 3.50)
2.29†
(0.29 to 4.29)
2.29†
(0.29 to 4.29)
2.29†
(0.29 to 4.29)
Cause spec cum inc, %1.55
(1.19 to 1.91)
2.94
(2.39 to 3.50)
4.44
(3.64 to 5.23)
1.14
(0.78 to 1.51)
2.27
(1.71 to 2.83)
3.73
(2.91 to 4.54)
2.38
(1.50 to 3.26)
4.93
(3.37 to 6.49)
7.21
(4.18 to 10.25)
5.57†
(0.29 to 10.85)
5.57†
(0.29 to 10.85)
5.57†
(0.29 to 10.85)
Moderate or severe AS
Subdistr cum inc, %2.19
(1.81 to 2.57)
3.60
(3.11 to 4.08)
4.71
(4.16 to 5.27)
1.55
(1.15 to 1.95)
2.91
(2.36 to 3.45)
4.28
(3.63 to 4.94)
3.26
(2.42 to 4.09)
4.83
(3.81 to 5.84)
5.54
(4.45 to 6.62)
4.65
(1.82 to 7.48)
5.58†
(2.48 to 8.69)
5.58†
(2.48 to 8.69)
Cause spec cum inc, %2.66
(2.19 to 3.12)
5.26
(4.53 to 5.99)
8.62
(7.53 to 9.71)
1.77
(1.31 to 2.23)
3.86
(3.13 to 4.58)
6.96
(5.85 to 8.07)
4.42
(3.27 to 5.57)
8.85
(6.84 to 10.86)
14.69
(10.77 to 18.60)
8.21
(2.9 to 13.51)
24.23†
(0 to 50.01)
24.23†
(0 to 50.01)
Death
Cum inc, %35.62
(34.38 to 36.85)
58.86
(57.59 to 60.13)
77.19
(76.10 to 78.28)
24.68
(23.30 to 26.06)
46.22
(44.63 to 47.82)
67.98
(66.48 to 69.48)
52.27
(49.95 to 54.59)
80.48
(78.64 to 82.32)
93.73
(92.59 to
94.87)
84.25
(79.56 to 88.95)
97.02
(94.77 to 99.28)
99.15
(97.81 to 100)
  • *Values in parentheses are 95% CIs.

  • †Identical estimates reflect lack of additional incident events during the longer study interval.

  • ‡Of the 82 incident procedures for AS, 2 were for percutaneous balloon valvuloplasty, 75 for surgical AVR and 5 for transcatheter AVR.

  • AS, aortic stenosis; AVR, aortic valve replacement; Cum inc, cumulative incidence; Caus spec, cause specific; Subdistr, subdistribution; y, years.