Table 2

Characteristics of included prediction models

ModelStudyPredicted outcomeNumber of predictorsDerivation EHR cohort (country)External validation EHR cohort (country)
Models originally derived for another purpose but tested for prediction of incident AF
CHADS2Gage 200137Stroke risk5ClalitHS (IL)
NHIRD (TW)
NHIS-HEALS (KR)
NHIS-NSC (KR)
YMID (CN)
CHA2DS2-VAScLip et al38Stroke risk7ClalitHS (IL)
Nivel-PCD (NL)
NHIS-HEALS (KR)
NHIS-NSC (KR)
YMID (CN)
HATCHde Vos et al36Progression to persistent AF5NHIRD (TW)
NHIS-HEALS (KR)
NHIS-NSC (KR)
YMID (CN)
Regression model derived in a prospective cohort design
CHARGE-AFAlonso et al48Incident AF or AFl11CPRD (UK)
Nivel-PCD (NL)
Regression models derived in EHR
C2HESTLi et al31Incident AF6YMID (CN)NHIRD (TW)
NHIS-HEALS (KR)
MHSAronson et al26Incident AF or AFl10MHS (IL)N/A
Machine learning models derived in EHR
CPRDHill et al28Incident AF or AFl100CPRD (UK)Discover (UK)
NHIRDHu W-S et al29Incident AF19NHIRD (TW)N/A
NHIS-NSCKim et al35Incident AF or AFl22NHIS-NSC (KR)N/A
  • AF, atrial fibrillation; AFl, atrial flutter; CHADS2, Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age>75, Diabetes mellitus, prior Stroke or transient ischaemic attack [two points]; CHA2DS2-VASc, Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age>75 [2 points], Stroke/transient ischaemic attack/thromboembolism [two points], Vascular disease, Age 65–74, Sex Category; CHARGE-AF, Cohorts for Heart and Ageing Research in Genomic Epidemiology; C2HEST, Coronary artery disease/Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [one point each], Hypertension, Elderly (Age≥75, 2 points), Systolic heart failure, Thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism); ClalitHS, Clalit Health Services; CN, China; CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink; EHR, electronic health records; HATCH, Hypertension, Age, stroke or Transient ischemic attack, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Heart failure; IL, Israel; KR, Republic of Korea; MHS, Maccabi Healthcare Services; N/A, not available; NHIRD, National Health Insurance Research Database; NHIS-HEALS, National Health Insurance Service - Health screening Cohort; NHIS-NSC, National Health Insurance Service-based National Sample Cohort; Nivel-PCD, Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research Primary Care Database; NL, Netherlands; TW, Taiwan; UK, United Kingdom; YMID, Yunnan Medical Insurance Database.