Association between physical activity* trajectories from baseline with incident CVD, CHD, heart failure and stroke, stratified by sex
| Follow-up | Male | Female | ||||
| Cases/ total | Rate/1000 person-years | Fully adjusted† model HR (95% CI) | Cases/ total | Rate/1000 person-years | Fully adjusted† model HR (95% CI) | |
| Any cardiovascular disease | ||||||
| Mean (SD) follow-up from baseline 8.1 (5.4) years | Mean (SD) follow-up from baseline 10.2 (5.4) years | |||||
| Stable-low | 13/27 | 87.88 | Ref | 80/184 | 48.12 | Ref |
| High-decreasing | 31/65 | 85.71 | 0.71 (0.37 to 1.39) | 60/129 | 55.04 | 1.28 (0.91 to 1.80) |
| Low-increasing | 26/60 | 57.38 | 0.65 (0.33 to 1.29) | 59/143 | 40.04 | 0.94 (0.67 to 1.32) |
| Stable-high | 179/395 | 51.54 | 0.48 (0.27 to 0.86) | 193/497 | 35.15 | 0.92 (0.70 to 1.21) |
| p for trend | 0.002 | 0.239 | ||||
| Coronary heart disease | ||||||
| Mean (SD) follow-up from baseline 8.6 (5.4) years | Mean (SD) follow-up from baseline 10.7 (5.3) years | |||||
| Stable-low | 13/37 | 62.22 | Ref | 51/209 | 26.39 | Ref |
| High-decreasing | 20/77 | 44.68 | 0.55 (0.27 to 1.12) | 32/149 | 23.54 | 0.99 (0.63 to 1.56) |
| Low-increasing | 15/66 | 27.52 | 0.52 (0.24 to 1.10) | 25/156 | 14.62 | 0.68 (0.42 to 1.11) |
| Stable-high | 102/434 | 24.91 | 0.40 (0.22 to 0.73) | 96/527 | 15.63 | 0.81 (0.56 to 1.17) |
| p for trend | 0.005 | 0.185 | ||||
| Heart failure | ||||||
| Mean (SD) follow-up from baseline 8.8 (5.3) years | Mean (SD) follow-up from baseline 10.8 (5.2) years | |||||
| Stable-low | 9/33 | 43.09 | Ref | 61/202 | 31.36 | Ref |
| High-decreasing | 24/86 | 44.40 | 0.77 (0.35 to 1.69) | 53/149 | 39.44 | 1.41 (0.97 to 2.04) |
| Low-increasing | 23/70 | 39.24 | 1.01 (0.46 to 2.20) | 41/163 | 22.40 | 0.82 (0.55 to 1.23) |
| Stable-high | 127/449 | 29.59 | 0.60 (0.30 to 1.19) | 138/529 | 22.28 | 0.90 (0.66 to 1.24) |
| p for trend | 0.038 | 0.175 | ||||
| Stroke | ||||||
| Mean (SD) follow-up from baseline 8.6 (5.4) years | Mean (SD) follow-up from baseline 10.6 (5.3) years | |||||
| Stable-low | 7/44 | 29.67 | Ref | 35/227 | 16.60 | Ref |
| High-decreasing | 10/85 | 19.35 | 0.67 (0.25 to 1.78) | 31/162 | 21.61 | 1.34 (0.82 to 2.20) |
| Low-increasing | 11/76 | 16.93 | 0.54 (0.20 to 1.43) | 27/172 | 14.58 | 0.99 (0.59 to 1.66) |
| Stable-high | 83/455 | 19.43 | 0.63 (0.28 to 1.40) | 79/536 | 12.57 | 0.95 (0.62 to 1.44) |
| p for trend | 0.464 | 0.494 | ||||
*Physical activity (moderate and vigorous physical activity) categorised as inactive ≤20 min day and active >20 min day (participants with at least two visits).
†Fully adjusted model: adjusted for sociodemographic variables (sex, education and number of members living in the same household), health behaviours (smoking and alcohol consumption), number of chronic comorbid conditions (cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, hypoacusia, hypovisus, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, anaemia, Parkinson’s disease, dyslipidaemia, osteoporosis with or without femur fracture, congenital mental retardation, osteoarthrosis, discopathy, orthostatic hypotension, urinary incontinence and bowel incontinence) and comorbid cardiovascular diseases (CHD, heart failure, stroke, angina, transient ischaemic attack, atrial fibrillation, hypertension and peripheral artery disease, with the exclusion of the outcome of interest) at baseline, and stratified by categorised year of birth.
CHD, coronary heart disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease.