Table 2

Association between physical activity* and incident CVD, CHD, heart failure and stroke, stratified by sex

Follow-upMaleFemale
Cases/
total
Rate/1000 person-yearsModel 1†
HR (95% CI)
Fully adjusted‡ model
HR (95% CI)
Cases/
total
Rate/1000 person-yearsModel 1†
HR (95% CI)
Fully adjusted‡ model
HR (95% CI)
CVDMean (SD) follow-up 9.4 (6.7) yearsMean (SD) follow-up 9.8 (6.9) years
 Inactive89/20361.30RefRef250/58440.72RefRef
 Active334/72046.53 0.75 (0.59 to 0.95) 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94)364/81433.740.95 (0.80 to 1.12)1.00 (0.85 to 1.19)
CHDMean (SD) follow-up 9.6 (6.9) yearsMean (SD) follow-up 8.9 (5.7) years
 Inactive77/26342.28RefRef182/68925.34RefRef
 Active209/78825.33 0.65 (0.49 to 0.85) 0.66 (0.50 to 0.87)208/86817.200.84 (0.68 to 1.03)0.92 (0.75 to 1.14)
Heart failureMean (SD) follow-up 10.2 (6.8) yearsMean (SD) follow-up 13.1 (6.9) years
 Inactive58/22732.14RefRef178/63524.58RefRef
 Active221/79725.550.74 (0.55 to 1.00) 0.72 (0.53 to 0.98)247/83920.400.91 (0.75 to 1.11)1.02 (0.83 to 1.24)
StrokeMean (SD) follow-up 10.0 (6.8) yearsMean (SD) follow-up 12.9 (6.9) years
 Inactive32/26015.85RefRef101/70112.97RefRef
 Active138/81815.781.02 (0.69 to 1.50)1.02 (0.69 to 1.52)149/87211.961.05 (0.81 to 1.36)1.14 (0.87 to 1.48)
  • Physical activity was entered in the model as a time-varying variable.

  • *Physical activity (moderate to vigorous physical activity) categorised as inactive ≤20 min/day and active >20 min/day.

  • †Model 1: Adjusted for sociodemographic variables (sex, education and number of members living in the same household), stratified by categorised year of birth.

  • ‡Fully adjusted model: Model 1 further adjusted by health behaviours (smoking and alcohol consumption), number of chronic comorbid conditions (cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, hypoacusia, hypovisus, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, anaemia, Parkinson’s disease, dyslipidaemia, osteoporosis with or without femur fracture, congenital mental retardation, osteoarthrosis, discopathy, orthostatic hypotension, urinary incontinence and bowel incontinence) and comorbid cardiovascular diseases (CHD, heart failure, stroke, angina, transient ischaemic attack, atrial fibrillation, hypertension and peripheral artery disease with the exclusion of the outcome of interest) at baseline, and stratified by categorised year of birth.

  • CHD, coronary heart disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease.