Characteristics of included prediction models
| Model | Study | Predicted outcome | Number of predictors | Derivation EHR cohort (country) | External validation EHR cohort (country) |
| Models originally derived for another purpose but tested for prediction of incident AF | |||||
| CHADS2 | Gage 200137 | Stroke risk | 5 | – | ClalitHS (IL) NHIRD (TW) NHIS-HEALS (KR) NHIS-NSC (KR) YMID (CN) |
| CHA2DS2-VASc | Lip et al 38 | Stroke risk | 7 | – | ClalitHS (IL) Nivel-PCD (NL) NHIS-HEALS (KR) NHIS-NSC (KR) YMID (CN) |
| HATCH | de Vos et al 36 | Progression to persistent AF | 5 | – | NHIRD (TW) NHIS-HEALS (KR) NHIS-NSC (KR) YMID (CN) |
| Regression model derived in a prospective cohort design | |||||
| CHARGE-AF | Alonso et al 48 | Incident AF or AFl | 11 | – | CPRD (UK) Nivel-PCD (NL) |
| Regression models derived in EHR | |||||
| C2HEST | Li et al 31 | Incident AF | 6 | YMID (CN) | NHIRD (TW) NHIS-HEALS (KR) |
| MHS | Aronson et al 26 | Incident AF or AFl | 10 | MHS (IL) | N/A |
| Machine learning models derived in EHR | |||||
| CPRD | Hill et al 28 | Incident AF or AFl | 100 | CPRD (UK) | Discover (UK) |
| NHIRD | Hu W-S et al 29 | Incident AF | 19 | NHIRD (TW) | N/A |
| NHIS-NSC | Kim et al 35 | Incident AF or AFl | 22 | NHIS-NSC (KR) | N/A |
AF, atrial fibrillation; AFl, atrial flutter; CHADS2, Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age>75, Diabetes mellitus, prior Stroke or transient ischaemic attack [two points]; CHA2DS2-VASc, Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age>75 [2 points], Stroke/transient ischaemic attack/thromboembolism [two points], Vascular disease, Age 65–74, Sex Category; CHARGE-AF, Cohorts for Heart and Ageing Research in Genomic Epidemiology; C2HEST, Coronary artery disease/Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [one point each], Hypertension, Elderly (Age≥75, 2 points), Systolic heart failure, Thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism); ClalitHS, Clalit Health Services; CN, China; CPRD, Clinical Practice Research Datalink; EHR, electronic health records; HATCH, Hypertension, Age, stroke or Transient ischemic attack, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Heart failure; IL, Israel; KR, Republic of Korea; MHS, Maccabi Healthcare Services; N/A, not available; NHIRD, National Health Insurance Research Database; NHIS-HEALS, National Health Insurance Service - Health screening Cohort; NHIS-NSC, National Health Insurance Service-based National Sample Cohort; Nivel-PCD, Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research Primary Care Database; NL, Netherlands; TW, Taiwan; UK, United Kingdom; YMID, Yunnan Medical Insurance Database.